Why will Masoud Pezeshkian be (in all likelihood) the next president of Iran?

Regardless of whether the death of Ebrahim RaisiWas it an accident or the result of a conspiracy premeditated by the internal forces of the regime of the Islamic Republic, the reality is that the stagnation of the XIII Government when it comes to resolving the endless economic problems and addressing the nuclear issue with the Westespecially with the increasing probability of Trump’s return to the White Househas left Ali Khamenei, Iran’s leader, in need of a new and different “soldier.”

Right now, Iranian society is like ashes under ashes: A single spark can reignite it. The previous flames have not yet been completely extinguished, and the Government’s imminent need to increase fuel prices could reignite the unrest.

Given the current state of international relations, it is unclear whether the Islamic Republic has the capacity to manage such a situation again. On the one hand, for the first time in decades, Iran has entered direct military confrontation with Netanyahu’s Israel.

For another, European powers have increasingly opposed Tehranputting more pressure on Iran to explain the remains of uranium found in undeclared sites and calling on the Islamic Republic to find a way to cooperate with the IAEA more appropriately.

It is unlikely that the Biden administrationless strict, will remain in power much longer, and Vladimir Putin’s Russia may have to give in to peace with the Ukrainian Volodímir Zelenski, which could spell the end of its apparent support for the Islamic Republic, based entirely on Russian national interests.

While the presidency of the ultra-conservative Saeed Jalili could be attractive to the Russians and guarantee Tehran’s distancing from the West, the reality is that a figure like Masoud Pezeshkian, due to his fundamental differences with his rival in the second round, can act as a “safety valve” for the regime in times of danger.

Pezeshkian, often labeled a reformist, can prevent anger from turning into hate guaranteeing some social freedoms to young people, such as making the mandatory hijab more flexible and offering some relative freedoms in society.

The absence of 37 million voters, a problem

Some critics believe that its approval by the Guardian Council – a powerful 12-member decision-making body – was not a coincidence and that his presidency could be an effort by the core of the regime to avoid a collapse. For this reason, supporters of “regime change” see it as a way out and advocate a total boycott.

Pezeshkian, who was a minister in the reformist government of Mohammad Khatami, achieved almost 10.5 million votes on a day in which it was said that electoral participation was less than 40%, surpassing Jalili to reach the second round.

The reformists and moderates of Hassan Rouhani’s government are working together to convince a part of the 60% who boycotted the elections to guarantee Pezeshkian’s presence in the presidential office.

His ability to convince boycotters ahead of the second round against the toughest candidate remains uncertain. The absence of some 37 million voters with the right to vote on a day when the leader of the Islamic Republic described “every vote as a vote for the Islamic Republic” has sent a very clear message.

The majority of those absent and those who boycotted the elections they do not believe in the realization of their legitimate demands within the current regime. They understand that the president lacks legal power and the ability to apply the fundamental principles enshrined in the Constitution.

Will Pezeshkian’s hands be untied?

If Ayatollah Khamenei sees the continuation of his political life and that of his family in entrusting the Government to Pezeshkian, this time, unlike previous mandates, he must not only give him access to the lock, but also to its key. Pezeshkian must be free to keep your promises without interferenceespecially from the IRGC and other hardline radicals inside and outside parliament.

The de-escalateespecially with the United States and European powers, avoiding excessive dependence on Russia and China, presenting a more moderate image of Iran, and reopening the economy by facilitating foreign investment can bring economic benefits to the Iranian people and ensure the continuity of the regime.

Entrusting the Government to Jalili will not satisfy this need, taking into account his main characteristic of “animosity toward the West” and its explicit opposition to joining international treaties such as the FATF against money laundering, terrorist financing and proliferation.

During his election campaign, Pezeshkian clarified that it is Yamene who sets general policies, including foreign policy, and who if he wins the election, will act accordingly and align with the leader’s decisions. However, there is a great difference between both candidates in the way of executing the leader’s orders. “Normalize and lift sanctions” will not give the same results as “neutralize sanctions,” for example.

It remains to be seen what happens to the national and international architects of sanctions and the beneficiaries of corruption, and whether Pezeshkian will be allowed that change in practice. In his speeches, the Iranian leader has practically asked that people who “depend on the United States” be excluded from the future cabinet.

This could cause the vote of confidence for Pezeshkian’s cabinet was very controversial, with the probable presence of figures such as the incendiary former Foreign Minister Javad Zarif. For this, we will have to wait until Friday. Politics in Iran is so complex that a last-minute turn is not shocking. In fact, every impossibility in Iranian politics must be considered possible.

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Babak Kamiar is head of Euronews’ Persian service.

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