Analysts say a likely Labor government could offer new stability to a recently tumultuous relationship between the UK and the EU.
He has dominated British politics for almost a decade, but Brexit has been a kind of taboo on the election campaign, as the United Kingdom prepares for the general elections this Thursday, July 4.
“The two main parties have tried to talk about Brexit as little as possible,” Joel Reland, researcher at the ‘UK in a Changing Europe’ think tank, told Euronews. “Voters have been left quite disappointed with what has been offered about Brexit. So the conservative prime minister“Rishi Sunak doesn’t want to draw attention to that,” he adds.
“In the Labor Party, Keir Starmer is trying to win back seats on the ‘Red Wall’, which voted for leave the EU in 2016,” he explains, referring to the Labor heartland seats in the traditionally working-class regions of the Midlands and the north of England, which defected en masse to the Conservatives in the last election in 2019.
However, now, with Labor about to enter the Government for the first time in 14 years, and its leader, Keir Starmer, promising reopen parts of the post-Brexit deal of the United Kingdom, the vote could trigger a new chapter in relations between the EU and the United Kingdom.
Starmer has ruled out rejoining the EU single market for goods and services or the customs union, and will not restore freedom of movement. Nor has it specified what aspects of the cooperation between the EU and the United Kingdom would renegotiate, although his closest collaborators have suggested that they could include regulations on chemicals, financial services and linking to the Community Emissions Trading Scheme.
Experts point out that if Starmer gets the keys to 10 Downing Street, could have difficulties for reopen the agreement in a way that is acceptable to both Brussels and its national electorate.
“When you dig into the details of what Labor wants to do, you can see that it is, broadly speaking, relatively small thingsand even some of them would probably be quite difficult to negotiate with the EU,” says Ian Bond, deputy director of the Center for European Reform.
By defining your red lines of not joining the single market or customs unionor allow free movement, the party “he has cornered himself“Adds Bond. “They have limited their room for maneuver and their ability to negotiate a better agreement with the EU,” says the deputy director of the Center for European Reform.
It is quite possible that Brussels will also try to extract concessions from the UK in exchange for a revised deal in niche areas. A concession could be youth mobility agreement that European Comission proposed in April, and which would give young British and European people the ability to travel, work and study freely on both sides.
“The problem is that Labor has ruled out, for the moment, a youth mobility agreement,” explains Joel Reland. “However, I think that if they want to reach an agreement with Brussels, they will probably have to be a little more flexible“he suggests.
Fertile ground for security and defense cooperation
The next British Prime Minister will meet with his European counterparts shortly after the elections. First of all, it will do so during the NATO summit which will be held in Washington from July 9 to 11. Next, on July 18, the new prime minister will receive some 40 European leaders at Blenheim Palace, including the 27 heads of state and government of the EU, on the occasion of the summit of the European Political Community.
The forum, considered an idea of the french president Emmanuel Macron, is one of the few summits in which the United Kingdom has direct access to all EU leaders and its Member States since their departure from the community bloc.
An area in which both parties will want to strengthen ties is that of security and defense, with a possible defense pact on the dialogue table.
The 2020 Trade and Cooperation Agreement contains few security provisions. With the war at the gates of Europe y the ghost of Donald Trump’s return looming over the White House, it makes strategic sense for both sides to support each other to bolster Europe’s defensive resources.
“All these questions about European security have become much more acute and worrying“, Olivia O’Sullivan, director of the UK in the World program at Chatham House, tells Euronews.
“The UK may have had a difficult relationship with the EU in recent years, but it has one of the largest European armiessystematically spends more than 2% of GDP in defense as a member of NATO, and cooperates very closely with important groupings such as the Baltic States and the Nordic States on defense matters,” he adds.
“So, way part of the European security puzzle“, Sugiere Olivia O’Sullivan.
Key elections in the United Kingdom at the start of the Hungarian EU Presidency
The UK elections coincide with the start of a new political mandate in the European Unionin which plans for enhance collective defense industries of the EU will probably be one of the main strategic priorities.
ADVERTISINGThe community block already has taken important steps to boost its defense industrial capabilities, and is expected to appoint a Commissioner to lead these efforts over the next five-year term.
“Many of the EU’s recent initiatives and projects in this area have focused on strengthening defense industrial production,” explains O’Sullivan. “However, many of these initiatives and projects They do not include third countries. They deliberately focus on the industries of EU member states. So it’s going to be difficult to negotiate whether the UK can be part of them, or wants to be part of them,” he says.
The EU may be more willing to count on the UK as a partner on defense preparedness. Above all, given the fear that the Eurosceptic political forceshistorically favorable to Russia, are being imposed throughout the community bloc.
Las UK elections They are held in the middle of two rounds of early legislative elections in France, in which the far right Marine Le Pen’s National Group occupies first position after obtaining more than 33% of the votes in the first round, on Sunday, June 30.
The extreme right would have a limited ability to shape foreign policy or the defense of France, matters that are considered the domain of the country’s president, even if he manages to form a government. Macron is likely to retain the French presidency until 2027.
ADVERTISINGWhile the growing popularity of the National Groupwho wants to reduce French military support to Ukraine, has set off alarms in Brussels. Thus, his success adds to the general sense of foreboding that Europe’s hand will weaken if Trump is re-elected US president in November.
On the other hand, the United Kingdom elections are destined to give rise to an unconditionally pro-Ukrainian Government, since both the Conservatives and the Labor Party have committed to supporting kyiv militarily.
“Having the British associated, as much as possible, with what the rest of Europe is doing will be particularly important if we end up with a pretty Donald Trump unpredictable and erratic as presidentagain, in the United States,” says Ian Bond. “For Brussels, I think the watchword will be stability,” he concludes.
