Viktor Orbán, Giorgia Meloni and Petr Fiala want to have more weight in the distribution of senior positions in the European Union, but the numbers work against them.
¿Who should lead the European Union in the next five years? Ten days after the elections to the European Parliament, the question remains unanswered.
An informal summit was held in Brussels on Monday at which the necessary progress was not achievedeven though that him favorite trio For the most important positions it has already been decided: Ursula von der Leyen for the presidency of the European Commission, António Costa for the presidency of the European Council and Kaja Kallas for High Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy.
On paper, the selection meets all the requirements: political, geographic and gender diversity. It is also a list of familiar faces who have rubbed shoulders with the leaders of the community block during the last five years and it is unlikely that they will produce any big surprises.
Still, there was no agreement. Bilateral and three-way meetings between the main parties, the European People’s Party (EPP), the Socialists and the Liberals, helped bridge the distancebut they were bogged down by the maximalist demands of the EPP.
A summit will be held on June 27 to try, once again, reach a deal. Meanwhile, recriminations have begun among politicians. Some leaders They have expressed their discontent and frustration because of the way the negotiations are being carried out.
“The will of the European people has been ignored today in Brussels,” said Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán at the end of Monday’s meeting. Orbán attacked the EPP, which comfortably won the elections, for share the top spots with the socialists and the liberals, who came in second and position on the vote list, respectively.
“They don’t care about reality,” said Orbán. “We must not be naive: they will continue to support immigration, and even send more money and weapons to the war in Ukraine“he added.
A day later, the Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera published an article detailing the anger of another of Europe’s political figures: the Italian Giorgia Meloni. According to the newspaper, the transalpine prime ministerwho has positioned himself as a person capable of elevating politicians to high places, or dethroning them, she seemed resentful for having been left out while bilateral negotiations were taking place. Thus, Meloni refused to accept a “pre-established” selection without first having had a “serious and in-depth” debate on the elections.
Next, a third signatory entered the fray to express his complaints: Petr Fiala. The Czech related the geography of his country with its power claims.
“The rules are clear. Candidates for the highest positions in the European institutions must respect the political and geographical interests“Fiala wrote in a social media post. “The Czech Republic is in the center of Europe. Our future portfolio must reflect this,” she added.
Politicians who have been left on the sidelines
The complaints expressed by Orbán, Meloni and Fiala stem from a common trait that unites them: none of them belong to the three pro-European families. Groups formed by the EPP, the socialists and the liberals that have dominated Brussels for decades.
Although this influence is no longer what it was, the “grand coalition” still has the most in the European Parliament and controls the European Councilwith about 75% of the heads of State and Government, around the table.
In his opinion, these numbers are strong enough to maintain the traditional haggling practice that dictates that the main positions are assigned to the EPP, the socialists and the liberals depending on their electoral results. Although this way of working has been criticized for being identified as ‘backroom deals lacking transparency’, it has ensured stability and predictability in the EU bloc’s policy-making cycle.
However, for Orbán, Meloni and Fiala, the winds of change are blowing. For them, the increase in support for the most conservative parties and extreme right in the elections held at the beginning of June is the start of broader review of the old EU rules, starting with the distribution of senior positions. His voices, reinforced by voter support, must be heard and recognized with greater authority, he believes.
“The result of the European elections is clear. The right-wing partiese have been strengthened, and the left and the liberals have lost ground“said Orbán. “We will not give in to this! We will unite the forces of the European right and fight against the pro-immigration and pro-war bureaucrats,” he declared.
Arithmetic, however, paints a quite different picture. Although the nationalists have advanced, they have not reached the high number of votes that the polls predicted. In the next legislature They will be more numerous, but they will continue to be a minority. The ‘grand coalition’ will have a majority of more than 400 seats, out of a total of 720 spaces in the European Parliament, which could exceed 450 MEPs with the incorporation of the Greens; a sufficient number to guarantee the stability of the organism.
On the contrary, the extreme right group composed of European Conservatives and Reformistss, ECR, and the group of extreme right Identity and Democracy, ID, would together have more than 130 seats. An amount that could be expanded if some members of the politicians not registered in groups join their ranks.
In the European Council, where political decisions are made at the highest level, the figures are more marked. The ECR has two representatives, Meloni and Fiala, and the ID has none. Orbán, who is not affiliated, has set its sights on the ECR group. His candidacy, however, is met with resistance from pro-Ukraine members of the group, including Fiala’s party.
ADVERTISINGAware of their fragmentation, the figures of the ID group have promoted talks to form a radical right supergroup to expand their influence. However, the effort has been unsuccessful until now and the negotiations face ideological disagreements between the different political forces, in particular on Russia and China.
Even if this supergroup emerged and was capable of overtaking the Socialists as the second political formation in the European Parliament, it would not alter the results of the elections. He balance of power in the European Chamber and the European Council would be the same, with the center in possession of enough votes to ensure that the highest positions are placed in the hands of those who want to strengthen, not weaken, the European integration project.
