The far-right National Rally party would see a significant increase in its share of seats, Ipsos predicts, but tactical voting thwarted chances of an outright majority.
The left alliance New Popular Front (NFP) has obtained the highest number of votes in the second round of the French legislative elections this Sunday, but failed to obtain the necessary majority of legislators to control the National Assembly, according to an exit poll.
Ipsos predictions represent a setback for the far-right partyNational Group (RN)which saw its hopes for an absolute majority shattered by tactical voting and the strategic withdrawal of candidates.
In the first round, the far-right National Group topped legislative polls, practically doubling your support and leaving President Emmanuel Macron reeling.
But the exit poll published after Sunday’s vote gives the New Popular Front (NFP), a hastily formed coalition of Socialists, Communists, Greens and the leftist France Insoumise party, between 172 and 192 of the 577 seats in the House, according to Ipsos.
It is followed by President Emmanuel Macron’s Ensemble coalition, which according to Ipsos will obtain between 150 and 170 seats, a significant drop from 245 which he obtained in the most recent elections of 2022.
Despite leading the polls in a first round held on June 30, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) would come in third place with 132-152 seatswhich, when confirmed, would frustrate hopes of installing Jordan Bardella as prime minister.
Today’s vote was the second round of early elections called by Macron on June 9, after it suffered a severe blow in the European elections. Ensemble, formerly known as En Marche, largely met around Macron’s presidencywho has become increasingly unpopular as his second and final term reaches his final years.
Macron’s unpopularity has benefited Le Pen
Its collapse has greatly benefited RN, a long-established radical right party, which had no seats in the Assembly in 2007. On the other hand, the New Popular Front met in June to defend themselves from the threat of the extreme right, although it did not achieve total unity. Left parties outside the NFP won between 13 and 16 seats, according to the latest poll.
In 2022, the equivalent coalition, known as NUPES, won 131 seats, while other leftists scored 22, although it is unclear how long the NFP alliance will stay together. The results mean it will continue to be bad news for Republicans.
The center-right party of Charles de Gaulle and Nicolas Sarkozy dominated French politics for a long time, but he (and his allies) are now projected to win between 57 and 67 seats, although that does not count members including party leader Eric Ciotti, who has pledged allegiance to Le Pen.
Who will be the prime minister?
Given the first results, it seems likely that the Macronist Gabriel Attal lose his position as prime ministerwhich he has held since January, although it is not clear who will replace him.
The French constitution allows “cohabitation” with a president and a prime minister from different parties. The last time it happened was between 1997 and 2002, when socialist Lionel Jospin governed alongside center-right president Jacques Chirac.
But is unprecedented No party will gain a majority without an obvious governing coalition, and France may find itself now at an unknown stalemate. France has a two-round electoral system: Only those who scored well enough in the June 30 vote advanced to the runoff.
But around 215 successful candidates They resigned during the weekwhile the “Republican Front” sought to avoid dividing the vote against the extreme right in electoral districts where three or more people managed to pass.
With so much at stake, voters They have come en masse. At 6:25 p.m., participation was 67.1%, the highest recorded since 1997 and much higher than the 46.2% obtained in 2022, Ipsos said. Already this afternoon, Paris was preparing to potentially violent protests for the result, and shops on the elegant Champs-Elysées boarded up their windows in preparation.
Dive into our coverage of the election to learn why it’s so important and what exactly is at stake. Find all our reports at our live on the French elections.
