Ukraine has not been offered a formal invitation to join the alliance, as there has been no consensus among allies for such a venture.
The recent NATO summit, held in Washington DC on the occasion of the 75th anniversary of the alliance, has left a bittersweet taste for Ukraine. While NATO’s promise of irreversibility of Ukraine’s path to membership is considered progress, questions arise about whether this is enough to guarantee the country’s long-term security.
A strong message, but not binding
Olha Stefanishnya, Ukraine’s deputy prime minister, called NATO’s statements a “very strong message about membership” and a “clear signal to Russia” about Ukraine’s future. However, experts such as Ed Arnold, senior researcher at the Royal United Service Institute (RUSI), warn that language used at summit is not legally binding.
Several experts, including former US ambassador to NATO Ivo Daalder, argue that NATO membership is the “only” security guarantee for Ukraine. This is mainly because the majority of Ukrainian territory would be covered by Article 5 of the NATO Treaty, which states that An attack against one ally is considered an attack against all.
Concerns and obstacles
Ukraine’s admission to NATO raises concerns among some member countries due to the risk of admitting a country embroiled in an intense armed conflict. However, Daalder points out that historically NATO has provided security guarantees to members with territorial disputesciting the example of West Germany in 1955.
There is concern that future political leaders, such as Donald Trump If he comes to power, they can reverse Ukraine’s course towards NATO. It is remembered the Trump’s attempt to blackmail President Zelenskywhich led to its challenge.
Ukraine’s position
Deputy Prime Minister Stefanishnya acknowledges that NATO membership is the best solution, but emphasizes that the only true guarantee of security will come when Russia ceases its territorial conquest and stops bombing civilian targets. “The moment when zero Russian soldiers are on Ukrainian soil, that will be the moment when we can say that people are safe,” he said.
Immediate Military Support
As part of the summit, NATO allies significantly increased their contributions to Ukraineincluding defense systems and a schedule for the delivery of F-16 fighter jets. However, Arnold argues that these measures, while important, are not enough to guarantee Ukraine’s security as the NATO membership.
As Ukraine advances in its road to NATO, it is clear that the process is complex and not without challenges. The Washington summit has shown renewed supportbut it has also highlighted the tensions and concerns surrounding the possible membership of Ukraine in the alliance.
