After the second round of the French legislative elections, the question that everyone is asking is: Who will govern France?
Contrary to what the polls predictedthe left-wing coalition New Popular Front (NFP) prevailed in the Parliamentary election held on Sunday in France, followed by President Macron’s centrist alliance.
The far-right National Group came in third place, a surprising defeat taking into account the historical match results in the first round of the legislative elections on June 30 and in the EU elections on June 9.
With 181 seats for the left, compared to 159 for the presidential majority and 143 for the National Group, Parliament is divided into three different blocks. Since none of the alliances has obtained the absolute majority of 289 seats in the National Assembly needed to form a government, France faces a blank parliament and a possible political paralysis.
French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal resigned on Sunday after President Emmanuel Macron’s coalition lost its relative majority in the early elections, but Macron has asked him to remain in office, since there is currently no candidate to replace him. So who could govern France and what are the possible scenarios In the next weeks? ‘Euronews’ analyzed some of the results.
Result 1: The left coalition as a minority government
The PFN is made up of a multitude of left-wing parties, including United France (LFI), the Socialist Party, the Greens and the Communist Party. There have been many internal disputesespecially around the delicate topic of who could lead France as future prime minister.
Jean-Luc Mélénchon, leader of the hard-left France Without Arc (LFI), has repeatedly stated that he is willing to take the position. However, he remains a polarized figure within the PNV. “Mélenchon repels many voters, so he is going to raise a serious problem if he is nominated,” said Erwan Lecoeur, a sociologist and expert on french far right and the Green Party.
“The issue with the left is that they do not have a natural prime minister that can be imposed. So they will have to find a compromise,” Lecoeur said, citing as possible candidates figures like Marine Tondelierleader of the Greens party, or Clémentine Autain, a less divisive MP from the France Unbowed party.
A prime minister does not have to come from a political partysaid Nicolas Tenzer, senior researcher at the Center for European Policy Analysis and writer of “Our War: Crime and Oblivion.”
“It could be someone outside the political sphere, like when Socialist MEP Raphael Glucksmann proposed to appoint Laurent Berger, leader of one of the largest unions in France. “It could be a good compromise for prime minister,” Tenzer told Euronews.
But a minority government with less than 289 seats It would mean that the left-wing coalition would have to live under the constant threat of a vote of no confidence from other parties. However, Macron’s government has managed to govern since 2022 with a relative majority of 246 seats. That is because the other parties never joined forces to overthrow them.
The presidential side had to search a majority of votes case by case to vote on each bill and regularly resorted to the use of article 49.3, which allowed the Macron cabinet approve bills without a vote, a very unpopular measure among the electorate. But if the controversial Mélenchon wins support, this could lead to a vote of no confidence, several analysts believe.
Result 2: Macron obtains an absolute majority through a rainbow coalition
Macron could try build a fragile coalition with left-wing moderates and right-wing parties. “We are in a situation of relative political paralysisso it might be possible to build a fragile rainbow coalition, but there is still a significant delta from the ideological point of view“said Benjamin Morel, an expert in constitutional law.
However, France does not have the political culture of form coalitions so massive that they are common in other EU countries like Germany, according to Lecoeur. “France needs to learn the art of reaching compromises. They cannot apply the PFN program or Macron’s party program. “There has to be something in between,” Tenzer said.
“Otherwise it will be chaos in France and chaos is certainly sent from God to the extreme rightwho will look for any opportunity” to prepare the ground for the 2027 presidential elections, he added.
But this option seems less likely after several party leaders have expressed their outright opposition to forging certain alliances, including Mélenchon, from the LFI. On the other hand, Macron’s strategy has been to try to isolate LFI in the political arena since the beginning of the campaign for legislative electionsdespite the fact that Mélenchon’s party remains the largest within the PFN, with 74 deputies out of 178.
Macron’s former prime minister, Edouard Philippe, and his current foreign minister y of the EU, Stéphane Séjourné ,They have ruled out any alliance with the LFI party.
“We are seeing many small political groups in Parliament and with the prospect of new elections within a year, could lead to many parties not doing any real favors to each other,” Morel told ‘Euronews’.
Option 3: Macron appoints a technocratic government
Another option for Macron would be to appoint a technocratic government with ministers without particular political affiliation to manage current affairs, with case-by-case support from the different blocks in the National Assembly.
ADVERTISING“It would allow France stay in chaos apolitical but very technical that would not last more than one or two years“Lecoeur said. However, some experts like Tenzer reject the possibility that this is even an option.
“I don’t think it’s possible to have a technocratic government because all decisions are political. For example, defining the budget will always be political, since the government will have to decide whether or not to give more to education, social measures, etc..” “We have to dispel this illusion“Tenzer told ‘Euronews’.
