French voters vote Sunday in the second round of early legislative elections that could produce the country’s first far-right government since World War II.
Why are these elections held?
President Emmanuel Macron made a risky bet on June 9 after his party, Renovación, lost resoundingly to Marine Le Pen’s far-right partythe National Group, in the European elections.
The National Group obtained more than 31% of the votes that nightwhile Renovación was left limping with just over 14%.
He dissolved the National Assembly and called early elections that night saying: “I have decided to give them back the choice of our future parliamentarian by voting.”
What happened in the first round?
In the first roundheld on June 30, no party exceeded the threshold of 289 seats.
The National Group obtained just over 33.1% of the votes castabout three percentage points less than the predictions of opinion polls, but it was still the clear winner.
For the first time, the party took the lead in the first round of voting after almost doubling its support since the last time France elected its National Assembly in 2022.
Macron’s “Ensemble” coalition reached less than 21% of the votebelow where it was in the equivalent phase of the 2022 legislative elections.
The left-wing parties obtained relatively good results.
He New Popular Frontan alliance of the Socialist Party, the Greens and Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s Open France formed after the elections were called, got 28%a slight improvement over the 25.7% that NUPES, the equivalent coalition, achieved in 2022.
What parties are in contention?
There are several games in contention, but the race will essentially be between four main contenders.
The far-right National Group and his allies, the New Left Popular Front, the centrist alliance ‘Ensemble’ y conservative republicans.
What will happen on Sunday?
The voters of all France and overseas territories They can vote for 501 of the 577 seats in the National Assembly, the lowest and most important of the two chambers of the French Parliament.
In the frenetic week between the two rounds, More than 200 centrist and left-wing candidates withdrew from the electoral race to increase the chances of their moderate rivals and try to prevent the National Group candidates from winning.
The latest pre-election polls suggest that this tactic may have reduced the extreme right’s chances of obtaining an absolute majority. But Le Pen’s party has broader and deeper support than ever, and it’s up to voters to decide.
Voters of French overseas territories and French residents abroad They started voting on Saturday.
What are the possible results?
The projections of Polls suggest that the National Group would obtain the largest number of seats in the next National Assemblywhich would be a historic first.
If it obtains the absolute majority of 289 seatsMacron is expected to name the president of the National Rally, Jordan Bardella, new Prime Minister of France. Bardella could then form a government, and he and Macron would share power in a system called cohabitation.
If the party does not obtain the majoritybut still has a large number of seats, Macron could appoint Bardella anyway, although the National Rally could refuse for fear that his government could be ousted in a vote of no confidence.
ADVERTISINGOr Macron could try to build a coalition with moderates and possibly elect a center-left prime minister.
If there is no party with a clear mandate to govern, Macron could appoint a Government of experts not affiliated with political parties. Such a government would deal primarily with the day-to-day affairs of running France.
But what complicates things is the fact that All of these options require parliamentary approval..
If political talks drag on too long in the middle of summer vacations and the Paris Olympic GamesMacron’s centrist government could maintain a transitional government pending new decisions.
How does cohabitation work?
If an opposition force obtains a majority, Macron would be forced to appoint a prime minister belonging to that new majority. Under this cohabitation agreement, andThe Government would apply policies divergent from the president’s plans.
ADVERTISINGThe modern Republic of France has experienced three cohabitationsthe last under the conservative President Jacques Chirac, with the socialist Prime Minister Lionel Jospin, from 1997 to 2002.
The Prime Minister is responsible to Parliament, heads the Government and presents bills.
During cohabitation, the President is weakened internally, but still has some powers in foreign policy, European affairs and defense, and is in charge of negotiating and ratifying international treaties. The president is also the commander in chief of the country’s armed forces and holds the nuclear codes.
What happens in the event of an undecided Parliament?
Although it is not uncommon in other European countries, Modern France has never experienced a parliament without a dominant party.
This situation obliges legislators to seek consensus between the parties to agree on the positions of the Government and the legislation. France’s fractious politics and deep divisions over taxes, immigration and politics in the Middle East make it especially difficult.
ADVERTISINGThis could derail Macron’s promises to review unemployment benefits or legalize procedures to end the lives of the terminally ill, among other reforms. It could also make it difficult to approve the budget.
When will we know the results?
The polls will open at 8:00 (local time) and close at 18:00 in towns and small cities and at 8:00 p.m. in large urban centers.
Pollsters will publish initial nationwide projections based on first partial results of the polling stations just after closing. These exit polls are usually reliable.
Vote counting is fast and The result could be known on Sunday night or, at the latest, in the early hours of Monday.
