The centrist pro-European parties have a majority, despite the fact that voters are leaning to the right. But Ursula von der Leyen’s path to re-election is fraught with difficulties.
About 185 million voters of the 27 countries of the UE have expressed their opinion, and right-wing parties have seen their support increase in all corners of the continent, tipping the balance of power in the European Parliament.
But the planned increase in support for extreme right parties has not been as pronounced as some expected, meaning that, if there is enough political will, the centrist pro-European coalition will hold.
Although more tense than ever, the call “grand coalition” between the center-right European People’s Party (EPP), the center-left Socialists and Democrats (S&D), and the liberal group Renew Europe have secured 403 legislators – around 56% of all seats-, according to estimates from Monday morning.
These parties have cooperated for years in the EU, building a firewall to prevent the radical right from entering in the political mainstream. Although their majority is now narrower, these groups could continue to collaborate to ensure the smooth functioning of the EU’s legislative machinery during the upcoming tenth term.
All eyes will now focus on the winner of the electionshe PPEwhich won a clear victory and consolidated its dominance in the new chamber.
Your main candidate, Ursula von der Leyenhad already expressed its willingness to work with some of the hardest right-wing parties, the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR).
However, early signs from the EPP suggest that they will remain loyal to their traditional allies at the centre. The European president, Roberta Metsola, told ‘Euronews’: “From the first projections, it seems that the constructive and pro-European center is maintained.”
Von der Leyen also offered to work with socialists and liberals to build a “majority at the center for a strong Europe,” carefully calibrating his words to appease critics who have criticized his recent overtures to the hard right.
“In other words, the center remains,” Von der Leyen added. “But it is also true that the extremes of the left and the right have gained support and that is why the result carries great responsibility for the center parties“.
However, since the European Parliament does not operate through a stable coalition, but rather Coalitions are formed issue by issue depending on the legislative project in question – and given that groups do not always vote as a bloc, rebellions being common -, it could mean narrow voting margins, especially for delicate files such as those related to the European Green Deal.
The limited room for maneuver could make the EPP rely on partners to its right in an ‘ad hoc’ manner, even for the first decision of the new chamber to make way for a new president of the Commission.
Von der Leyen’s future hangs by a thread
Following the victory of her party, the EPP, which has increased its number of seats by eight, Ursula von der Leyen has a first opportunity to get five more years at the head of the European Commission, according to the callproceso top candidates.
But his chances of reelection have been complicated not only by the arithmetic of the new Parliament, but also by the president’s decision Emmanuel Macronto call early legislative electionsin France.
Some say that a weakened Macron and a chancellor Scholz in trouble -whose German socialist party finished third, behind the main opposition party CDU/CSU and the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD)– could derail his candidacy.
EU leaders are scheduled to meet in Brussels on June 28 to formally designate the candidate to the Commission, just days before voters go to the polls in France. Given that Von der Leyen is very unpopular in France – even the French EPP delegation opposes his re-election – his appointment days before the vote could further undermine Macron’s popularity.
If she clears that hurdle and is appointed by EU leaders, she will have to get the backing of the absolute majority of the 361 deputies newly elected to the European Parliament (EP) in a secret vote.
That vote was initially scheduled for mid-September but, according to the media, could occur as soon as the July 18during the inaugural session of the new Parliament in Strasbourg.
In 2019, von der Leyen passed that test by a very narrow margin of nine votes. This time, the national delegations of his EPP group could oppose his re-election. And if the socialists and liberals rally their members to vote for it, there is a good chance that small national coalitions will rebel.
ADVERTISINGThese narrow margins mean that von der Leyen can count on the support of party lawmakers. Brothers of Italy (FdI) de Giorgia Meloni, which won 24 seats according to preliminary results. This consolidates Giorgia Meloni’s position as a power broker in the EU.
But by trusting Meloni, von der Leyen risks alienating the leftist alliesand is unlikely to get the backing of The Greenswho also voted against her in 2019 and who suffered some of the biggest losses on Sunday night, losing 20 seats and seeing their power in the chamber eroded.
The remodeling could benefit the right
The arithmetic of European Parliament It may also change once newcomers or parties currently politically homeless in the European Parliament negotiate membership in the group.
It is expected that the talks on the party affiliation start on Monday. Many of these parties belong to the far right, which means that a possible reshuffle could strengthen the numbers of the two far-right groups, Identity and Democracy (ID) and European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR).
Among the parties currently classified as not registered is the Fidesz but Viktor Orbánwhich is estimated to have obtained 10 seats, and could try to join the ECR and further increase the numbers of the nationalist group.
ADVERTISINGMarine Le Pen – whose French National Group was the big winner of the night, with more than 31% of the votes, which led President Emmanuel Macron to call early legislative elections – has also expressed its desire to form a far-right supergroup that includes Giorgia Meloni’s FdI legislators.
Meloni has thus become a “kingmaker”, as she is also courted by von der Leyen on the centre-right. Meloni is likely to play her cards carefully, as allying herself with Le Pen could ruin her chances of collaborating on an ‘ad hoc’ basis and thus having a definitive say in shaping EU policy.
Parties currently lacking a political family also include Germany’s embattled AfD, which despite a recent series of scandals involving investigations into foreign influences and neo-Nazi ties, came second in Germany with 16 seats in the European Parliament.
Expelled of the hardline Identity and Democracy (ID) group at the end of May, it is unclear whether the AfD can join forces with other radical parties to form a fringe group on the far right of Parliament. To do this, it needs at least 23 legislators from at least seven EU Member States.
The reshuffling of the groups could also further dent the numbers of the centrist Renew Europe group, which suffered massive losses, with an estimated 22-seat drop.
ADVERTISINGIts president, Valérie Hayer, has already indicated that the Dutch People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) will be expelled this Monday for agreeing to enter the government with the far-right Freedom Party (PVV) of Geert Wilders in the Netherlands.
The Dutch agreement came a few days after the Renew Europe group publicly promised never to enter government with far-right parties “at any level.”
This could see Renovar’s number of seats reduced to 76, adding pressure to the centrist coalition and further accentuating the numbers Von der Leyen needs to confirm her re-election.
