Following his defeat at the hands of the far-right National Rally in the European elections, Emmanuel Macron called for the dissolution of the National Assembly. Voters will have to return to the polls to elect 577 deputies, on June 30 for the first round and July 7 for the second.
France is heading towards early legislative electionsplanned for June 30 and July 7after President Emmanuel Macron announced the dissolution of the National Assembly, the lower house of Parliament.
How do elections work? What are the possible results? We inform you.
How do legislative elections work?
The National Assembly It has 577 seats. The function of the deputies is propose, modify and vote on laws. In the first round of the elections, on June 30, French voters will choose one of the candidates running in their constituency.
If a candidate gets the absolute majority (more than 50% of the votes with at least 25% of registered voters), wins automatically. Unlike the presidential electionthe index of abstention is therefore decisive.
At the end of this first round, if no candidate obtains an absolute majority, a second round for July 7. Any candidate who has obtained more than 12.5% of the vote can advance to the second round. The candidate with the most votes in the second round wins a seat in the National Assembly.
How does the French government system work?
France has a single government system described as a hybrid regime with a President but also a powerful Parliament.
Unlike most countries with a parliamentary system (think UK or Canada), the Head of State is directly elected for the people, which gives them visibility and legitimacy. The Constitution of 1958 is what governs the political system of France, called the Fifth Republic.
Se adopted to curb the power of the National Assembly after the government instability that shook the Fourth Republic.
In 1962, a referendum modified the mode of election of the President. Since then, the Head of State has been elected by universal suffrage.
“From then on, the system became more “presidential,” in the sense that citizens provided more attention to the President than to the deputies, when in reality we should pay much more attention to our deputies, and today we are very aware of this,” explains Alexandre Frambéry-Iacobone, a law expert at the University of Bordeaux.
The new Constitution grants the President specific powers ,how to dissolve parliament or call a referendum.
What are the possible results of the legislative elections?
Result 1: Macron’s party obtains an absolute majority
In the next parliamentary elections, the objective of any party is to achieve at least 289 seats to have an absolute majority in the National Assembly and thus be able to carry out its program without having to negotiate with other parties.
And Emmanuel Macron’s liberal party winsthe president will be able to appoint Gabriel Attal as prime minister again.
Result 2: Macron’s party obtains a relative majority
If a party obtains a relative majority – 230 seats as is the case today with Macron’s party, can’t govern alone and needs to make alliances to pass certain laws.
Result 3: No party obtains a majority
If no party obtains a majority and a government coalition is not formed, a state of blockade within the Government. In that case, France plunges into the unknown, since this situation has never arisen.
“In that case, it would be much more complicated to continue with the big reforms that would advance France. Instead, we would remain stagnant,” says Alexandre Frambéry-Iacobone.
One thing is certain: new legislative elections cannot be called for another year to resolve the situation. Before this political paralysis“a solution would be that Emmanuel Macron resigned“says François-Xavier Millet, professor of Constitutional Law at the University of the Antilles. But the president has so far ruled out this possibility. Neither Parliament nor the Government can force him to do so.
Result 4: Another party obtains the absolute majority
If another party obtains an absolute majority, be it the far-right National Group or the left coalition New Popular Front, the President will have to choose a Prime Minister from the winning coalition. The Prime Minister will then choose his ministers. In French politics, This is known as “cohabitation.”
ADVERTISINGHow did previous cohabitations work and what are the precedents?
Throughout the Fifth Republic, France has experienced three cohabitations after the opposition party won the elections. parliamentary elections. “It does not mean that it was the easiest position for the presidents of the Fifth Republic who have experienced cohabitation, but the Government was not in a stalemate either,” explains Alexandre Frambéry-Iacobone.
The last time cohabitation occurred was in 1997, when center-right president Jacques Chirac dissolved parliament thinking I would get a stronger majoritybut unexpectedly lost to a leftist coalition led by the socialist party.
Lionel Jospin was appointed Prime Minister and led the Government until 2002. However, Jospin managed to introduce several laws which he opposed presidential sidesuch as the 35-hour work week, universal healthcare and civil union for same-sex couples.
How would a possible cohabitation between Macron and the extreme right work?
Although the name of the far-right MEP has been proposed Jordan Bardella as possible Prime Minister in case the National Group achieves the absolute majorityit is the president who chooses the head of the Government.
“We can imagine that even with a majority of the National Rally, if Macron feels like it, he can try to appoint Marine Le Pen (the historic far-right leader of the National Rally), who could reject the position. “This would continue until Macron finally appoints Jordan Bardella or someone else who agrees to do the job,” Frambéry-Iacobone said.
ADVERTISINGAs a result, a French president during a period of cohabitation it is forced to have a more discreet role, closer to those found in other parliamentary systems.
However, the President would still maintain certain powers, such as the command of the armed forces and foreign policy – ratifying international treaties and accrediting ambassadors. But ultimately it will be the match with absolute majority in the National Assembly the one who will have control of France’s internal policies.
If a President does not agree with a certain law, he can refer the matter to the Constitutional Council (entity that ensures respect for constitutional principles and norms) or request a second reading to the National Assembly.
But ultimately, if the Constitutional Council declares itself incompetent or if deputies vote on the law a second time, the Head of State will have to sign it.
Who decides on EU affairs?
It is the Head of Government, and therefore Parliament, who decides on EU affairs. These include the ministers who sit on the EU Council to negotiate and vote on the European legislation.
ADVERTISING“Los european affairs Are not considered foreign policy. To a large extent it is domestic politics. So it is up to the Government to decide on European affairs,” said François-Xavier Millet.
“But it is evident that there could be tensionswhich are to be expected between the prime minister and the president in a situation of cohabitation when it comes to European affairs,” Millet said.
