According to polls carried out in eight representative EU countries, the next European Parliament will lean to the right. However, moderate forces will have a say in creating temporary coalitions and alliances to make the European Chamber work.
Europeans began to cast their ballots in NetherlandsIreland and the Czech Republic on Thursday and Friday, in what could become the electionsmost controversial in the history of the EUwhile the rest of the countries still have to vote across the union this weekend.
The moderate conservatives of the EPP are expected to obtain a clear majority in the general vote, the ‘Euronews’ super poll over eight EU countries.
The socialists are expected to be the second force. The liberals of Renew Europe They would place themselves in third place, although they are likely to lose a considerable number of seats.
Refering to extreme right, despite its strong growth, pollsters say it will not dominate the new European Parliament. “The vast majority of MEPs arriving in Brussels after the elections will remain solidly pro-European. Even the ECR delegations will not question the absolute essence of the European Union to a certain extent,” says Tomasz Kaniecki, analyst at the Euronews Polling Centre. ‘.
Germany
He PPE would achieve an important result in Germany, slightly higher than 30% of the votes. The extreme right is uncomfortably in second position, threatened by the slow but constant growth of the social democrats Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
The AfD has slightly slowed its growth after being affected by the scandals related to the shameful statements of sympathy towards the SS veterans of Nazi Germany by its candidate for the European elections Maximilian Krahand the cases of espionage with China y Russia that affected some of its members in the European Parliament during the electoral campaign.
Pollsters do not rule out that the social democrats of the SPD (S&D) surpass the extreme right. The distance between the AfD and the SPD remains too short. Los Verdes occupy a disappointing fourth position. The liberals of the FDP (Renew Europe) have been losing ground, dragged down by the average negative trend of other parties affiliated with Renew Europe in Europe.
However, if these forecasts are confirmed after the vote count, they would represent quite bitter results for the current national government coalition called “traffic light”, formed by the SPD, the FDP and the Greens. Only the majority shareholders, the social democrats, could claim a partially acceptable result thanks to their slow pace of recovery of consensus.
The result of the CDU-CSU (PPE) could be considered a relative success of the outgoing president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyenhistorical member of the CDU and former Minister of Defense in Angela Merkel’s Government.
According to a panorama of pan-European projections, the moderate forces could be imposed on the so-called protest voters. However, country by country, the predictions for far-right forces remain striking, as in France.
France
It is expected that the National Group (RN) of Marine Le Pen, member of Identity and Democracy, get a broad victorytaking advantage of the social discontent of the French.
The RN list, led by Jordan Bardella, is expected to almost double the Renaissance liberals of Valérie Hayer’s Renew Europe.* The president’s group Emmanuel Macron in the European Parliament will likely face a electoral defeataccording to the polls.
Macron’s popularity is low for national political reasons. The Elysée reference group in Strasbourg is Renew Europe. The French MEPs of the Renaissance party have been the backbone of the grand coalition despite their numerical minority compared to their main partners, the EPP and the S&D.
He ‘macronismo’ was considered by the moderates from all over Europe like a dynamic political proposal that could have relaunched the EU after the financial crisis and Brexit, but according to polls, it will hardly be the case again in the new legislature.
Los socialists Raphaël Glucksman’s French (S&D), like their peers in other large European countries, are recovering slowly and smoothly, and are still confident of overtaking Renovar and settling into second position.
Italia
War and peace and ukrainian issue will probably become the most important issues of the next EU legislature. The political forces of the European Parliament will be asked to overcome your divisions to face this important geopolitical challenge, which is why the results of the European elections in Italy seem relevant for the next legislature.
There, the prime minister’s far-right party Giorgia Meloni He is called to win big. Their Brothers of Italyor FdL, are part of the group of European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), which could support moderate forces to create a functional majority.
Pollsters and ‘bookmakers’ of EU politics are betting on the fracture between the radical right of ECR and the leadership of The pen in Identity and Democracy. If it happens, the current big tent coalition, which will likely be revived, will count on ECR votes to make the European Parliament functional.
ADVERTISINGThe big fish of the ECR are the FdI of Melons and the PiS of Kaczyński in Poland. Both parties are openly pro-NATO and pro-Western. The EU could count on them when important decisions have to be taken on Ukraine.
Steven Van Hecke, professor of EU politics at Ku Leuven, explained: “There remains a great division, even between the ECR and the Identity and Democracy group. “So I would rather see the EPP collaborating with the ECR to negotiate agreements with the social democrats and liberals than these two agreeing with Identity and Democracy.”
Polls predict that the PD (S&D) has increased its rating to double that of the League of Salvini.
Spain
After Germany, Spain It is the other stronghold of the EPP in these elections. The conservatives of the PP would win the elections. However, Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s Socialists are right behind them in the polls, and the result is still too close.
The ‘Euronews’ super polls confirm that the far-right Vox (ECR) will achieve a fairly good result, although not as strong as they expected its leaders and supporters.
ADVERTISINGPoland
Poland is a politically peculiar country, since, according to pollsters, the center-left and the left are almost non-existent. The clash of giants in the Central European country will be between the coalition of Prime Minister Donald Tusk, KO (EPP), and the ultra-conservative PiS (ECR).
The match PiS leads the polls on the KO,* although projections continue to suggest a too tight result.
