The climate is changing Europe’s winters. So can we expect the same “white Christmases” as in our childhood?
Last week parts of Europe received their first heavy snowfall of the season and Severe weather warnings for UK, Ireland and France. Then the storm BertIt caused heavy rains and hurricane-force winds.
But are snow and storms common in November? So is this a sign of what awaits us in Europe this winter? ‘Euronews Green‘ We met with meteorologists to get their professional opinions.
Recent snowfall in Europe was normal for November but ‘heavy snowfall was rare’
“In my childhood BelgiumThe first snowfall and heavy snowfall usually occur in mid-November, so In general, we are roughly around the European average in terms of snowfall.“, states Lars LowinskiBonn-based meteorologist WeatherOnline you Weather and Radar.
Although heavy snowfall They are common in February and March, when sea temperatures are lower; this was a rare occurrence this early in the winter season. It occurs when low pressure systems rise to combine with cold air from the Atlantic Ocean.
Lowinski explains what’s different in this episode profit: “Even in this period of climate change, temperatures are generally rising, with the first cold spells coming with frost, ice and even a few centimeters of snow They are nothing unusual. “This time of year,” Lowinski explains. “But What mattered was the amount of snow (last week)“.
“In some parts France and from the southwest Englandand even in areas Cornwall you Devon“There has been significant snowfall in this region, which is usually quite warm at this time of year, and Paris had 4 centimeters of snow on Thursday last week, which is very unusual.”
It turns out that it hasn’t snowed this much in Paris in November since 1968. “This shows thatunusual and extreme This phenomenon is seen in many regions of central and northern France,” adds Lowinski.
Some European cities are not prepared for heavy snowfall
“It doesn’t snow much in ParisEven in the middle of winter, people are not as prepared for snowfall as, for example, in winter. Alps, Bavaria HE Scotland. Even a small amount of snow on the streets causes chaos and traffic jam That’s exactly what happened on the roads, despite meteorologists’ warnings. France He said it would be an important event.
The UK Met Office stated:euronews’ “For context, Our last amber warning for snow was in November 2010.. However, this was a much more significant and widespread snow event. We had a similar number of stations recording 2 centimeters or more of snow in late November 2021. For this reason This type of activity in November is not unprecedented, certainly not common“.
latest phenomenon winter weather More importantly, in November 2010, Lowinski called itSiberian ExpressThe high pressure system, which usually brings calmer weather, meant there were only northeasterly or easterly winds for weeks. The cold wave lasted from the last week of November until the end of the yearand we were there for a few nights Europe the western one Temperatures ranged from -15 to -20 ºC is below zero.
“What was exceptional about this episode was that climate change was already an issue and temperatures were already starting to rise around the world. It wasn’t as hot as it is now because it’s an ongoing process, so this It seems unlikely that we will experience anything like this again.“adds Lowinski.
Winter weather is difficult to predict, but it’s important to be prepared
The larger the weather system, the easier it is to predict. Storm Bert It was spotted on weather models a few days in advance and was named by the Irish Met Office 48 hours in advance.
This gives time to warn and prepare emergency plansSuch as the implementation of flood prevention measures. Storm Bert, which wreaked havoc on Europe this weekend, was a slow-moving storm. This greatly worried meteorologists because the longer a storm lasts, the more likely it is to become a multi-hazard systemThis means heavy rains, flooding and strong winds.
Unfortunately, smaller regional weather events, such as snowfall or flash floods, are more difficult for meteorologists to predict and often occur with only 12 to 24 hours’ notice.
How do meteorologists predict winter will be in Europe?
For meteorologists Winter doesn’t officially start until December 1.. Countries like Germany you BelgiumAreas farther from the North Sea and Atlantic Ocean tend to have a more continental climate. This means Temperatures are generally lower in winter and higher in summer than in coastal areas.
ADVERTLowinski generally predicts that: Pretty average temperatures and precipitation for this winter. “In the northern parts of Europe – everything north Paris, Berlin you Warsaw– Wetter than average conditions and perhaps some storms are likely. In the south of Western Europe, for example in Southern Spain, MediterrenianYes Alps And Balkans“We are more likely to see drier conditions in the next three months,” Lowinski explains, adding that this doesn’t mean we won’t see wetter or drier days or months due to certain weather events.
Climate change will make winters hotter and more severe in Europe
Our future winters will be warmer due to climate change and we have already seen this in real numbers this month. For example, the DWD weather station in the southwest of Baden-Baden GermanyIt recorded 22.2°C across Germany, a new record for the last ten days of November. While sudden and wide temperature changes are common in Asia and North America, this is expected to be less so in Europe’s maritime climate.
Moreover, Six of the ten warmest winters on record in the UK have occurred since 2007. Lowinski emphasized that it is interesting to see such a drastic change as in November, when temperatures in Europe dropped from freezing to 18°C.
