Turkmenistan’s gas traffic can reinforce Europe’s energy security

The diversification of a part in energy sources is always one of the basic principles Turkey’s energy policy in the last decade. In this sense, in the last 20 years, Turkish officials signed a variety of contract with the Basra Gulf, Hazar Naval Basin, Africa and American Arab countries for natural gas and LNG imports.

Last week, the two parties accepted to allow Turkmeno natural gas to reach Turkey for the importation of 27 years of negotiations between Türkiye and Turkmenistan. As of March 1.

According to the Minister of Energy and Natural Resources in Türkiye, Alparslan Bayrakdar, Leaders Türkiye and Turkmenistan In July 2024, they signed a preliminary agreement on gas imports from Turkmenistan. Türkiye It can import 2000 million cubic meters of natural gas from Turkmenistan annually.

Turkey’s natural gas imports in 2024

Natural gas imports in Turkey increased by 2% last year compared to 2023 and reached 51.5 billion cubic meters. Currently Russia, Azerbaijan and Iran They are the main suppliers Natural gas from Turkey. LNG, Catar and the United States of the United States play a role in leadership with Nigeria and Algeria.

Thanks to a 25 -year agreement, Iran has been exporting 10,000 million cubic meters of natural gas to Turkey since 2001. But in recent years, Iran is often Iran He wasn’t talented To ensure the gas required by Turkey within the scope of the contract for a few reasons. These include the imbalance of natural gas.

Partial diversification of Turkey’s energy resources

Türkiye is importing Azerbaijan gas from the TANAP gas pipeline. Through the hydro current and the Turkish Stream Pipeline It imports natural gas from Iran. Before the beginning of Ukraine, only a few of the main energy countries such as China, Germany and Italy imported gas from two or three gas pipelines.

Thirty years of negotiations for gas imports from Turkmenistan

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, they showed the desire to import Türkiye and the European Turkmeno gas. He had to come to Turkey and then to Europe. Transkashing Gas PipelineTürkmen Gas Supply Route from the Hazar Sea Bed to Azerbaijan. From there, through the existing infrastructure in Azerbaijan, Türkiye and later in Europe.

However, in the last thirty years, due to the legal regime of the Caspian Sea, Iran and Russia’s opposition to this construction and Political and Economic Challenges The construction of the pipeline was not operational to guarantee the financial resources needed by the project.

Russia and Azerbaijan reaction

Russia plays an important role in Turkey’s energy security. Even after the eruption of the war in Ukraine and the boycott of the Russian energy industry by Europe and the United States, Russian oil, With big discountsHe reached Turkish refinery. Thus, petroleum products were exported to Europe on behalf of Türkiye and Turkish authorities were able to earn billions of US dollars in this way.

Turkmeno gas imports by Ankara does not pose a serious threat to Russia in the Turkish Energy Market. However, Turkmenistan gas imports They are still increasingRussia will have to consider Turkey’s conditions in the future to renew existing contracts.

Azerbaijan has invested billions of dollars in Turkey’s energy infrastructure. It exports gas to the country and exports its oil to Israel by using Turkey’s energy infrastructure (Bakú-Tbilisi-Ceyhan Gas Pipeline). TURKMENO gas imports increase in Türkiye, medium term danger Participation in the Energy Market of Azerbaijan Türkiye.

I will renew gas import agreements in the mood of uncertainty

Iran’s existing gas imports will end in July 2026 and the negotiations between the two sides so far Refresh the agreement They did not give results. However, if the Iranian agreement is extended due to the continuous energy crisis and the shortage of natural gas in Iran, there is no gas to export to Turkey.

At the same time, you cannot imagine a clear vision for negotiations between Iranian authorities and the United States. They will continue until the sanctions are abolished and Iran will continue until they draw the necessary financial resources and technologies of Western companies. Numerous problems Iran’s energy industry.

Iran’s Gas Transport Way to Turkmenistan

In recent years, to compensate for partially Gas natural deficit In the northern states, Iran had Azerbaijani gas exchanges to obtain transit rights for Turkmeno gas in Northern Iran states.

Of course, the right to gas traffic of Turkmenistan was not enough to meet all the natural gas needs of Northern Iranian states. By the way, the contract gas exchange It has been suspended from Turkmenistan from Azerbaijan.

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Gas imports from Turkmenistan and Russia are one of the options of the Pesshkian government to compensate for some of the short -term natural gas scarcity. For this reason, during the President’s visit to Moscow and within the framework of the agreement Long -term cooperation Between Iran and Russia, Iran officials imported Russian gas, so that some of them can be consumed in the country and the other party can be moved to neighboring countries.

Iran’s dream of creating a gas center

In recent years, Iran’s transformation in a natural gas management center in the region has been over and over again as one of the targets of governments. Even someone Reasons for importing gas Iran from Russia and Turkmenistan can consume a part of imported gas throughout the country to overcome the problem of natural gas scarcity. The rest is transported to other countries and benefits from the right to pass.

In this context, Akbar Poly Regional Gas Trade Center By direct connection with Russia and India. Iran has gas connections with all land neighbors, and it also needs to be connected to Russia and India to trade with gas.

A point that is overlooked in the discussion is the possibility of Iran becoming a natural gas trade center and lack of minimum requirements to be one of the country. Regional Energy Center.

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For example, Iran’s energy market is not special and its infrastructure cannot meet the needs of energy centers. A clear example of this is insufficient natural gas storage facilities.

In addition, the permanence of sanctions represents another important obstacle for Iran to become an energy center. Currently, Turkmeno seems to be the truth of the most logical way to move the gas to Turkey. Use the existing natural gas infrastructure in Iran.

However, there is a great concern for the safety of this route, because in winter they will often face difficulties in supplying the gas needs of Turkey due to an increase in domestic demand.

Another difficulty faced by Iran is the continuation of sanctions and the possibility of an Israeli attack against Iran’s nuclear facilities, which can represent a very serious risk for the security of the transition of Turkmeno gas to Turkey and worsen the economic conditions. Iran and Türkiye.

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Turkmeno gas to bring to Turkey an alternative way to bring Create a gas pipelineDue to the high costs and political challenges caused by the opposition of Russia and Iran, Iran and Turkey on the agenda of Turkey through Azerbaijan and Georgia, which does not appear to be a transportation gas pipeline project.

Turkmenistan Gas Prices Export

The price of Vadrati gas from Turkmenistan may be one of the difficulties faced by Ankara. Türkiye is one of the countries that pay the highest prices for natural gas imported from Iran.

High price Iran Natural Gas, Iran’s quality as well as the quality of the gas imported from Turkey Send a request Against the International Court of Justice, which forces Iran to pay Iran for a fine to Turkish authorities. Keep in mind that there will be a significant difference between the price in 2024. Natural gas purchased by Türkiye from the European Union and the United States.

Industry is looking for cheaper gas

As of March 1, the beginning of Turkmeno gas exports to Turkey is considered a positive event. Turkey’s energy securityHowever, it is necessary to clearly define important details such as import volume, price and traffic risks. However, industries, energy power plants and Turkish housing sector They look for cheaper gas.

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If Turkmeno natural gas comes to Turkey at a competitive, safe and stable price, this may mean a turning point for energy security and diversification of Turkey’s energy resources. That Balance import Russia, Iran and Azerbaijan, and from the imports of naturalized natural gas (LNG), Türkiye can make significant progress in diversification of energy resources and guarantee geopolitical security, price stability and supply guarantee.

In addition, import levels may increase gas to the markets of the European Union markets that encounter graves from the TANAP Gas Pipe Line and even export gas Supply and prices problems. In recent years, the export of Iranian gas to Europe has been one of the long -term targets of the Ministry of Oil, although Iran has the necessary capacity.

Türkiye starts Import Turkmenistan gas Since next month and this gas can reach Europe in the medium term, Iran will have an ideal opportunity to play a role in Europe’s energy security.

However, according to the continuation of sanctions and estimates, the consumption of gas in Europe is taken into consideration It will decrease around 40 % For the next decade, the increase in European investment in the energy transition process and the increase in LNG imports of the United States and African countries seem to not overlap with the dynamics of the European energy market.

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