Scientists say La Niña conditions may lower global temperatures slightly in 2025, but the planet is still warming at an alarmingly rapid rate.
The year 2024 is undoubtedly hottest ever recordedAccording to European scientists, it is the first place where the global average temperature exceeds this limit. Paris Agreement target 1.5 degrees Celsius over the pre-industrial period. According to an analysis of data from the World Meteorological Organization, the temperature increase in 2024 was partly caused by weather conditions known as El Niño.
In 2025, another phenomenon known as Girlcould slightly lower global temperaturesThis means that the 2024 temperature record is unlikely to be broken next year. But despite this, 2025 is likely to be among the three warmest years on record, according to the Met Office, the UK’s weather and climate agency.
What are El Niño and La Niña?
El Niño and La Niña are two opposite climatic conditions In the Pacific Ocean, which affects weather everywhere on the planet. Trade winds in the Pacific tend to blow from east to west, pushing warm surface waters into the western Pacific.
El Niño occurs when: These winds are weakening or reversingIt makes the waters in the Eastern Pacific (off the coast of America) warmer than normal. During La Niña periods, east-west trade winds strengthen, pushing warm waters further west towards the coasts of Australia and Southeast Asia. This makes Cold water rises from the depths of the oceanIt causes the average sea surface temperature to be colder, especially in the Americas. Episodes occur at irregular intervals, every two to seven years, and usually last nine to twelve months.
Both El Niño and La Niña can affect weather around the world. Although each episode is different, La Niña is associated with wetter than normal conditions In various parts of the world such as Northern Australia, Southeast Africa and Northern Brazil. It could also increase the likelihood of flooding in some areas and lead to a busier hurricane season.
What do scientists predict for 2025?
La Niña may appear, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Between November 2024 and February 2025. But the cooling effect on global temperatures may be “weak and short-lived”, the WMO says. “We have witnessed a long-term series since June 2023” Extraordinary temperatures on land and sea surfaces. Even if a short-term cooling occurs in La Niña, this will not change the long-term trajectory of rising global temperatures due to greenhouse gases trapping heat in the atmosphere,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saul.
In fact, meteorologists say this Temperature predictions for 2025 Considering the likelihood of La Niña conditions is extremely high. “Years such as 2025, when the warming effect of El Niño is not dominant, should be colder. 2016 was the year of El Nino and at the time it was the hottest year on record in terms of global temperature. However, compared to our 2025 forecast, 2016 now looks decidedly cold,” said Professor Adam Scaife, who leads the UK Met Office’s 2025 global forecast.
Paris Agreement not violated (yet)
Seems likely in 2024 temperatures It exceeded 1.5 degrees Celsius for the first time Compared to pre-industrial times, a benchmark set by the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement.
However, exceeding this threshold for one year is not considered a violation of the Paris threshold. Scientists say threshold must be crossed persistently overcomeFor a period of up to 20-30 years. Some scientists say the relationship between climate change and La Niña and El Niño events is not entirely clear.
