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European Week: Is Olaf Scholz a chancellor in low hours?

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This article was originally published in English

This edition of European Week focuses on the consequences of the regional elections in Germany, the latest dispute between Hungary and the EU and Mongolia’s refusal to stop Vladimir Putin.

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If you like to follow the ups and downs of conflicts between European Union y Hungarythis week he had a great time. Hungary’s anti-immigration government failed to meet the deadline to pay a fine of 200 million euros imposed by the EU Court of Justice.

The judges had considered that Hungary committed a “unprecedented infringement y exceptionally serious of EU Law” by imposing restrictions on the right to asylum.

The argument goes back to 2020when the Hungarian authorities were harshly criticized for keeping the asylum seekers on calls transit areas in conditions similar to the detention.

Now, the European Commission has launched a procedure to collect the 200 million euro fine. “We have the financial regulation in force, there is no room for manoeuvre. We have to follow the applicable procedures,” declared Balazs Ujvari, spokesperson for the European Commission. “We have sent a second request in accordance with the procedure. This gives Hungary 15 calendar days to make payment in question”.

We’ll see what happens within two weeks.

The far right gains ground in Germany

However, the surprise of the week was not Hungary’s refusal to pay its fine, but the result of the regional elections in it eastern germany. For the first time since World War II, a party of extreme right and fascist became the greatest force in regional elections.

It is shocking, but not a surprise. The German Chancellor Olaf Scholzsaw it coming. Even before Election Day, she announced a tougher immigration policy in a vain attempt to stop the bleeding of his Social Democratic Party at the polls.

Germany has started deport to their country of origin to citizens afghans with criminal records. Now, Scholz’s colleague south of the border, in Austria, has announced direct deportations to Afghanistan and Syria as well. To achieve this, Vienna will work closely with Berlin.

“Las repatriations to Afghanistan and Syria are no longer taboo, but are now part of the way we can really address the issue of irregular immigration and criminals,” said the austrian chancellorKarl Nehammer. “This means that many measures are needed here, and Austria has made a significant contribution,” he added.

The extreme right and populism “do well with instability”

We talked about this topic with Rafael Lossresearcher of European Council on Foreign Relationsbased in Berlin.

Euronews: Olaf Scholz’s toughening immigration policy has not helped him in the elections. Is there a risk that his government will abandon other policy positions, for example on Ukraine, to please populist crowds?

Loss: There is certainly that risk. I believe that the federal government, in collaboration with the democratic opposition, the Christian Conservative Union, is trying to find a way to respond to this electoral victory of the AfD (Alternative for Germany) and the BSW (Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance) in Saxony and Thuringia on Sunday. And immigration policy certainly seems to be one of the areas in which they have identified the need to work. But there is less emphasis on issues such as Ukraine or the energy transformation, somewhat controversial topics.

Euronews: So were the results in East Germany more symbolic in nature than substance? That is, we are talking about two small states with a combined population of 7% of the German total. Is it still a national barometer?

Loss: It’s certainly important to keep things in perspective. You are right to point out that Saxony and Thuringia are not the largest of the 16 states in Germany. But it is the first time that a far-right party has had 30%, a third of the seats in any state or federal parliament in Germany since 1949, since the founding of the Federal Republic. This is, to some extent, a decisive moment that gives the AfD and the BSW great power, formal and informal, to influence politics. But more importantly, I think their success means that other parties have to respond to them, they have to respond to their initiatives, to their rhetoric. And AfD and BSW have little interest in stability and order. Instability suits them well.

Euronews: Chancellor Olaf Scholz has described the results as “bitter”, urging other parties to keep the far right out of power, which would force them into ideologically confusing coalitions. Could this be a correct path?

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Loss: It seems that this is a way forward, whether German politicians like it or not. The political spectrum is increasingly fragmented. The extreme right and the extreme left are political forces to be taken into account. And that means that centrist political parties, those with a strong Democratic commitment, have to find new ways to cooperate effectively and not only to advance important policy issues, but also to signal to voters that democratic governance can deliver results.

Euronews: At this point, it is difficult to see how Scholz can politically survive the federal elections a year from now, even though he has proven, time and time again, that he has political stamina and cannot be underestimated. What does he think?

Loss: The questions circulating in Berlin certainly revolve around its political survival, which this time should be ruled out. But there are certainly questions that arise. The SPD, Olaf Scholz’s own party, is trying to stay silent at the moment, because there are another state elections in Brandenburg in two and a half weeks. But then, if the results for the SPD are as disastrous as in Saxony and Thuringia, it is difficult for me to believe that Olaf Scholz will remain as comfortable in his leadership position as he is now.

Putin in Mongolia

This week, a country that rarely appears in the news, Mongoliahas been in the news for not stopping Vladimir Putin. Putin’s visit to this neighboring East Asian country was his first trip to a State party to the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague.

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almost 18 months agothe CPI issued a arrest warrant against Putin for alleged war crimes in connection with Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine.

The members of the Court are obliged by treaty to detain suspectssomething that Mongolia decided not to do. Instead, the Russian president was received in the capital, Ulaanbaatar, by an honor guard dressed in uniforms similar to those of the 13th century ruler Genghis Khan. Ukraine and the UE They asked Mongolia, unsuccessfully, to fulfill its obligations and detain Putin.



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