From drought killing people in the Horn of Africa to the deadliest floods in modern Spanish history, new analyzes draw a direct link between increasingly frequent extreme weather and climate change.
Death toll exceeds 150 after worst DANA in Spanish history A quick analysis by climate scientists suggests that global warming has doubled the likelihood of this event occurring and greatly increased the intensity of showers. “There is no doubt that these explosive downpours, climate change“expressed Friederike Otto, World Weather Attribution (WWA) project manager from the Center for Environmental Policy at Imperial College London.
Average temperatures around the world are already Dangerously close to 1.5°C Above the mid-19th century mark when governments historically decided to stop global warming 2015 Paris Agreement. “With each degree of warming from fossil fuels, the atmosphere can hold more moisture“These deadly floods are another reminder of how dangerous climate change has already become, with just 1.3°C of warming.”
But on the eve of the climate summit COP29 will be held next month Bakucapital city AzerbaijanThe UN warned last week of the huge gap between government actions and climate science. At the current rate, the temperature increase will exceed 3°C by the end of the century.
Imperial WWA team In collaboration with local scientists and meteorologists, he developed a protocol in the immediate aftermath of the event that allowed them to quickly assess how large the fire was. climate change triggered or intensified extreme weather events. mortals valencia flood It occurred as the group was planning to publish a report today. Draws a clear link between human-caused climate change and the 10 deadliest extreme weather events of the last twenty years.
Most deaths were related to one incident. drought It caused approximately 258,000 deaths in the Horn of Africa in 2010. Hurricane Narcissus In their analysis of weather events, WWA scientists found that at least 138,000 people were killed in Myanmar in 2008. “We know there are no natural disasters. It is the vulnerability and exposure of the population that creates the dangers. in humanitarian disasters,” the report says.
But although citizens rich countries are less vulnerableIt is clear that they are far from immune to the dangers of extreme weather. Two of the deadliest incidents of recent times Heat waves in Central and Western Europe It caused nearly 90,000 deaths in 2022 and 2023.
Researchers warnin many cases, Recorded death figures likely to be underestimatedespecially when it comes to heat waves that affect the poorest countries. “The enormous number of deaths we continue to see extreme weather conditions “It shows that we are not adequately prepared for 1.3°C of warming, let alone 1.5°C or 2°C,” says Roop Singh, climate risk advisor at the Red and Middle Cross Climate Centre. All countries must prepare for the future He added that these events are becoming more frequent and more intense.
“But in the end we have to reduce emissions“Singh added. This was the key message for world leaders, ministers and EU officials as they prepare for the final round of EU talks. HE About the weather in Baku. At the top of this year’s agenda is a new fund to help developing countries combat climate change and avoid dependence on the fossil fuels that got us here.
“at COP29 must accelerate the transition towards its abandonment. The main reason is fossil fuels one we live in very dangerous weather“Joyce Kimutai, a researcher at the Imperial Environmental Policy Centre, said: “We also need significant funds for the loss and damage fund. $700 million promised COP28 “These are just a drop of water compared to the billions of losses suffered by poor countries every year,” Kimutai added.
This year is expected to be the hottest year in historyIt surpassed the record set in 2023. Sjoukje Philip, researcher Royal Netherlands Meteorological InstituteHe noted that it is no longer possible to consider climate change as a “distant and distant threat” as it seemed to many at the turn of the millennium. “Evidence linking extreme weather events climate change will continue to increase,” Philip warned.
