While Ukrainian forces expand their control in Russian territory, the kyiv Army loses ground in Donbas. The raid on Kursk could play an important political role in the outcome of the war or turn into a military nightmare for both sides.
Russians and Ukrainians seem fight in two parallel dimensions: both contending armies claim military successes in two different regions.
While the Ukrainian incursion into the Western Russian Kursk Territory appears to be steadily gaining ground, the Russians are close to achieving an objective of their own in the Donbas after taking the city of Niu-York and advancing on a key transport hub of Pokrovsk.
In the Kursk area, Ukrainian forces attempt to seize Korenovo. The fall of this city would allow them to reinforce their defenses in Russian territory and build a coherent ‘buffer zone’ to protect Kharkiv and other northern cities. This buffer zone, declared by President Zelensky as the main objective of the incursionwould be a great operational success for the Ukrainians.
The different objectives of both parties They lead to different measures of success: Kiev officials closely monitor the number of square kilometers of Russian territory its military controls, while Russian forces aim to dismantle Ukrainian fortifications that have been built in the Donbas since 2014.
Both offensives also happen at different speeds: Ukraine’s advance in the Kursk region is currently faster than Russia’s in the Donbasand although Ukraine may be forced to withdraw there, it has already damaged transportation infrastructure that could make Russia’s forward march even more difficult.
Political and diplomatic leverage
The Ukraine’s surprise offensive in Kursk raised eyebrows around the world, and its true purpose is still a mystery. Some experts believe kyiv may have had the US elections in mind when it launched the attack.
“One of the explanations for this operation by the Ukrainians is to gain influence because the elections in the United States are approaching,” said Joni Askola, a Finnish military analyst at Charles University in Prague. “Many partners and allies of Ukraine are perhaps beginning to promote this idea of negotiations and Ukraine wants to maintain control over that process in case they are forced to negotiate.”
“So, upon landing on Russian territory, [los ucranianos] keep control of this process, they make it less likely to be seen forced into any negotiation”Askola added. All eyes will turn towards the American presidential elections in the coming months, and its outcome will directly influence the Western world’s role in Russia’s war against Ukraine.
Should its Western allies pressure it into negotiations, the Ukrainians needed to have an ace up their sleeve that they could present to all sides, whether partners or aggressors, experts said. Another objective of the raid on Kursk was move Russian troops away from the southeastern front. However, according to observers, Moscow so far does not appear to have significantly reduced its military presence in the Donbas and kyiv has ordered the civilian population to evacuate the city of Pokrovsk, probably Russia’s next target.
Upping the ante?
After its relative success so far in Kursk, could Ukraine be tempted to up the ante and open a new seafront in the south? Ukrainian special forces have proven highly skilled in water operations, having inflicted huge damage to the Russian fleet and to its coastal facilities, especially in Crimea.
kyiv’s allies have also reinforced its amphibious arsenal: Sweden, Finland and other countries have provided him with weapons and speedboats. “In terms of logistics, this [abrir un frente en Crimea] “It could be quite complicated and would require a lot of manpower, pontoons and other expensive material,” Askola said. “Crossing the Dnipro River in the Kherson area could also be an option, but it would also require a lot of resources.”
Regardless of your next steps, Ukraine has taken control of Russian territory. It’s the first time since 1941 that a Foreign army violates Russian soilwhich could have a lasting effect on the minds of Ukraine’s allies and the Russian people themselves, even if kyiv is ultimately forced to withdraw.
Zelensky had said that the Kursk raid has shown that Kremlin’s alleged red lines for retaliation are a bluffadding that Ukraine would not have needed to physically invade Russian territory if its allies had not prohibited it from using its weapons to attack targets on Russian soil from afar.
Most likely, Ukraine destroyed the important Seym bridges in Kursk with guided bombs supplied by the West and launched by Soviet-made Ukrainian aircraft, according to Askola.
“Although it is unlikely that the recently delivered F16s were used to directly attack the bridges, we cannot rule out that the F16s, armed with AMRAAM air-to-air missiles, were used to protect the operations of the MiG 29 from the Sukhoi 27 (of the Russian interceptor planes),” he said.
ADVERTISINGApparently, kyiv also counted on the help from the Free Russian Legiona paramilitary unit of Russian citizens based in Ukraine that opposes the Russian regime of the president Vladimir Putin and his invasion of Ukraine.
“Operations like the Kursk raid at the moment and also, for example, the attempt to Prigozhin coup d’état last year are examples that show that Russia is really difficult to control and that the Putin regime does not manage to control Russia, or at least does not have as much control as it tries to present to the world and its own population,” said Askola.
Until now, The Kremlin has been slowly increasing defense against Ukrainian attacks on its territorybut nothing important has yet manifested itself. However, many analysts do not rule out a Russian retaliation with renewed force, which could even involve another mobilization of military reservists.
“Russia could mobilize potentially to 300,000 more people“Askola said. “And that, of course, would make a big difference.” “In the short term, it would be very bad for Ukraine. In the long term, it might actually accelerate Putin’s downfall in Russia,” he said.
ADVERTISING
