The war in Ukraine has dominated the political debate ahead of September elections in three eastern German states. Both far-left and far-right parties demand negotiations with Russia and a halt to arms supplies to Ukraine.
“Peace, freedom, no war.” These are the kind of slogans that resonate in the picturesque cobblestone towns of eastern Germany. The average age of those carrying flags emblazoned with “peace” and “our country first” is around 60 years old. But many of these protests also have a darker undertones and echoes of anti-democratic values.
Some of the participants in a demonstration held on Monday in the town of Goerlitz, in the east of Sajoniawore T-shirts that read: “When right becomes wrong, residency becomes a duty.” Some of the protesters They are convinced that the Government is acting against them “importing cultures” and frivolously spending money on green energy.
The inhabitants of the eastern states of Sajonia, Thuringia y Brandemburgo They will go to the polls in September. According to the latest polls, the party of far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has overtaken in Saxony to the Christian Democrats (CDU), who spent 16 years in power under former Chancellor Angela Merkel and are expected to win in next year’s federal elections.
a new extreme left partythe Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), split from the left-wing party Die Linke last year and demanded policies similar to those of the AfDsuch as negotiations with the Russian President Vladimir Putinthe end of arms shipments to Ukraine and the softening of climate policies. Both parties are highly critical of the current Government, but have not offered many viable solutions.
Could these votes from the eastern German states influence the foreign policy of the federal government?
Political scientist Carsten Koschmieder says not directly, although these elections could influence the other political parties in power. Koschmieder says that Local state governments cannot direct foreign policy“but they do influence the general political situation“.
The point, says Koschmieder, “is that other parties are watching what is happening. They see that BSW and AfD are getting a lot of votes. In East Germany, the war in Ukraine is an important topic.”
“What is happening now is that, for example, the minister president of Saxony, Michael Kretschmer, who is a member of the CDU and who is part of the national executive board of the CDU, has been saying for months that we have to reconcile with Russia, buy Russian gas again, leave Ukrainestop giving anything to Ukraine and expel Ukrainian refugees.”
Koschmieder says Kretschmer wants to keep the majority of his votes, especially given that AfD could get around 30% of the votes in the September elections.
“He is trying to play with this issue because he knows it is important to people. If it turns out after the state elections that parties opposed to aid to Ukraine obtain good resultsand if post-election polls show that the issue was crucial for many voters, this will naturally have an impact on national politics. “We have federal elections in 2025, if the coalition lasts that long.”
Koschmieder warns that “if the AfD achieves a strong result in the three state elections, democratic parties will begin to ask themselves why this is the case and what they need to change.”
“However, the influence of state governments beyond their borders is quite limited, unless they act through the Bundesrat (the Federal Council),” Koschmieder continues. “But even in the Bundesrat, the combined influence of the three states is minimal“.
And a coalition between BSW and AfD?
It is expected that the AfD be the strongest party at least in Saxonyand may he do very well in Brandenburg and Thuringia. But ands unlikely to exceed the 50% needed for a majority that allows him to enter the Government. The appointment of judges requires a two-thirds majority.
However, even though the AfD does not enter the Governmentcan exert a great influence, according to Koschmieder. Although The CDU has ruled out forming a coalition with the AfD at both the local and federal levels.could go back on this promise.
Alternatively, Koschmieder says, “it is possible that, for example, the BSW and the AfD together achieve more than 50% in one of the federal states. “It would then be impossible to form a Government without one of these two parties and, of course, they could make very strong demands during the negotiations, saying: ‘We will only enter the Government if you accept this or that.'”
Among those demands would probably be the cessation of arms supplies to Ukraine. Koschmieder says the BSW is likely to enter government and that its leader, Sahra Wagenknecht, “has already said she would intervene in state-level negotiations and push for domestic and foreign policy issues to be part of the talks. She could say: ‘We will only enter a coalition if the coalition agreement includes a commitment for the state government to defend certain things.'” Although state governments have no authority over foreign policy or decisions about aid or weapons for Ukraine, could push something like a Bundesrat initiative for Germany to stop supplying weapons to Ukraine. “That’s really likely.”
ADVERTISINGHowever, if there are disagreements within a coalition, the Bundesrat abstains from voting on the issues. This means that the AfD, in coalition with another party such as the CDU or the BSW, would not vote on certain issues, even if the three states were governed by an AfD governmentsomething Koschmieder considers very unlikely.
Is the AfD really a threat?
Koschmieder states that “The AfD will only have influence if other parties form a coalition with them or if the CDU adopts the positions of the AfD. In that case, the AfD could have a lasting negative impact on democracy. But if the CDU does not do so, the AfD will remain relatively isolated. Even if they get 30% of the votes, they won’t be able to do much damage on their own.”
However, that is only at the federal level. At the state level, the AfD could “cause a lot of damage within its statesdamaging democracy at the regional level, undermining education and destroying political commitment.
Both the BSW and the AfD are skeptical about green energy, but if the AfD does well in the next election, their leaders “could delay coal phase-out because they do not want to risk unemployment or structural changes in the coal regions of eastern Germany. This affects all of Europewhy if Germany continues burning coal or, conversely, invest more in solar and wind energy, this will have broader repercussions across the continent.”
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