How might the new US Government influence European political actors?
Donald Trump’s political return to the US is welcomed by some supporters EuropeDespite warnings that the next American president could influence the US Security, Defense and the economic interests of the continent.
Although some populist politicians described the former US president’s victory as a political victory, experts warned that this was unlikely. Trump’s victory help them in the long run. Let’s take a look at who you think might or might not benefit from an upcoming change: transatlantic relations.
Who are the winners of Europe after the elections?
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán became the first European leader to congratulate the new president of the United States, confirming that it was “a much-needed victory for the world” and later stating that it would bring “a change in the world”. mentalities and ideas”.
Former European Commissioner Thierry Breton told Euronews this week: Orbán likely to be Trump’s main contact in Europe. While many see Orbán as Trump’s likely interlocutor in Europe, the actual impact of the outcome in the country is “contradictory,” says Péter Krekó, a political analyst at the Institute of Political Capital in Budapest.
Krekó, Hungarian Prime Minister’s orban “One An increasingly important figure in the eyes of American Republicans and that’s totally good for him” and something he can exploit. But if Trump imposes higher tariffs on the German auto industry, for example, that’s something that could hurt the Hungarian economy.
“Raise (Orbán’s) profile diplomaticallybut economically it is difficult to see how this could bring real advantages to Hungary,” Krekó said.
Another politician who described Trump’s victory as a victory for Europe was: Italian deputy prime minister Matteo Salvini celebrates Trump’s “great comeback” and stated that the new American president’s leadership “can only be good for Italy, Europe and the whole world.”
Hendrik Vos, professor of political science at Ghent University (Belgium), said that those who want to take advantage of this Trump administration shares views on immigration and traditional valuesbut they are also similar in the way they participate in politics.
“Very polarizingThey violently attack political opponents and make the opposition’s job as difficult as possible. “They are breaking the rules of the democratic political game, and that is why Orbán and Salvini regularly attract attention in Europe,” he said. Trump’s arrival as US presidentthey would see it as something verification“, in question.
However, according to experts, Trump’s political agenda continues to prioritize US interests above all else. Written in a tone reminiscent of Trump’s style, the Republican party’s platform reads in capital letters:America first“and claims that previous American leaders sold jobs abroad and “blindly believed in the siren song of globalism.” “If Trump has to choose between America’s interests and the interests of Hungary or Italy, We will always put Americans first” Vos said and stated that he should not expect any favors from Orban and Salvini.
Who are Europe’s political losers?
There is broad consensus that Trump’s victory will reverberate throughout Europe and impact companies, Defense and Security.
Mai’a Cross, director of the Center for International Relations and World Cultures at Northeastern University in the USA, said: Trump’s election will likely be very worrying for France and Germany As “key powers involved in European security and defence”.
But regardless, Cross said: Trump’s policies will ‘hurt Europe overall’From possible higher tariffs on imports to the possible impact on the stability of the region.
“I’m thinking long term, but it might add some sense of commitment.” renewed support the anti-immigrant and xenophobic stances of many groups Far right in Europe“This won’t do them any good because voters will see that,” he added.
At the meeting of the European Political Community in Budapest, French President Emmanuel Macron said that it was not for him to say whether Trump would be good or bad for Europe. “He was elected by the American people and he will defend the interests of Americans. This is legitimate and a good thing,” he said. Macron. “The question is whether we are ready to defend Europe’s interests”.
ADVERTA similar message came from other European leaders; Polish President Donald Tusk warned before the elections that the future of Europe “depends above all on us.”
A particular concern for leaders is The future of American support Trump also turned to Ukraine and NATO as he encouraged Russia to attack countries that do not spend enough on defense.
Overall, Vos cautions: “This isn’t just a matter of some leaders openly supporting Trump.” “Moreover There will be countries willing to buy weapons from the USA or reach bilateral agreements “It’s positive for the Trump administration,” he notes.
“Trump will undoubtedly try to turn EU member states against each other. “Preventing this will be a very important task for the European Commission,” he added. Krekó said Trump’s victory “Increasing the popularity of the populist right in the short termI think there is a real question about how this relationship with Europe will develop in the medium and long term.
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