What does the surprising victory of the French left alliance mean for Europe?

When exit polls revealed a surprising victory of the left alliance French in the early legislative elections On Sunday, there were sighs of relief in many corners of Europe.

Centrists feared that possible arrival of the extreme right the Government of France – the second most powerful economy in the EU – to sow economic and political instability and undermine the unbreakable bloc support for Ukraine.

However, with a divided Parliament and no clear path to a coalition governmenthe political stalemate in Paris continues to cast uncertainty on France’s ability to exert influence in Brussels.

The final results on Monday morning placed the leftist alliance New Popular Front with 182 of the 577 seats in the National Assembly, to the president’s centrist alliance Macron with 168 seats and the extreme right National Assembly with 143. This means that a possible way out is a left-wing government that shares power with centrist president Emmanuel Macron.

Experts say that, despite the loss of seats in the National Assembly, Macron has emerged with his political credibility intact: “It will be less weakened than expected and France will continue to exercise its international role with a certain panache, as until now,” Federico Santopinto, director of the French think tank IRIS, told ‘Euronews’.

A strong government in Paris is considered a essential pillar of EU stability. Now that France finds itself in uncharted political territory and weighed down by uncertainty On its future leadership, analysts call for a “pragmatic” solution that allows France to meet its urgent priorities while “fending off” the threat of the far right.

For Olivia Lazard, a member of the Carnegie Europe think tank, the unexpected defeat of the extreme right in the second round means that Macron “will retain his credibility” while France avoids “going back to a kind of sovereigntist discourse” and nationalist that obviously goes against Europe.”

“France, at the moment, remains one of the key bastions in Europe against the rise of the radical right and against the influence of Russia,” Lazard told Euronews’ Radio Schuman. “This means that Europe will remain safe for a relatively long time when it comes to defense issues.

Relief in kyiv

A victory in the second round of the far-right National Meeting, which won the first round of elections a week ago, it would have meant a new threat to EU support for Ukraine.

Marine Le Pen’s party has historical ties with Russia and had promised to limit French aid to Ukraine. The party controversially obtained a €9 billion loan from a Russian bank in 2014, even though Moscow had been sanctioned for its illegal occupation of Crimea.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk was one of the first of the 27 EU leaders to respond to the exit poll: “In Paris – enthusiasm, in Moscow – disappointment, relief in kyiv”said Tusk on the social media platform X. “Enough to be happy in Warsaw.”

European leaders – especially on the eastern flank – feared that President Macron’s hand in foreign policy would have been weakened if he had been forced into a power-sharing agreement with a far-right French government, and that this in turn would have diluted France’s financial and military support for kyiv.

Le Pen’s party had noticeably changed its stance on the war on the eve of June’s European elections, saying it would continue to provide defense aid but would would not send long range missiles nor other weapons that would allow Ukraine to attack Russian territory.

But the leader of the far-left party La Francia Insumisa (LFI) – part of the victorious New Popular Front alliance – has also been accused in the past of adopting a pro-Russia stance.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon – defender of France’s military non-alignment – declared in February that it was “time to negotiate peace in Ukraine with mutual security clauses” and has systematically opposed to the shipment of weapons sophisticated to Kiev.

Support for Ukraine is one of the issues that could shatter the unity of the New Popular Front, which brings together many types of left, from socialism to the hard left.

For Laetitia Langlois, a researcher at the University of Angers, the center-left Socialist Party (PS) and its leader Raphaël Glucksmann could play an important role in building a pro-Ukrainian coalition.

With 77 seats, the LFI party of Mélenchon He is the most voted of the New Popular Left Front. The centre-left Moderate Socialist Party – to which MEP Raphaël Glucksmann belongs – and its allies won 59 seats. “Raphaël Glucksmann, who is obviously, as we know, very pro-Ukraine, may try to temper LFI’s rhetoric,” Langlois explained.

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“I think there is a consensus within the country around supporting Ukraine and defending the values ​​of democracy in the face of an aggressive and tyrannical country. It would be difficult, even for LFI, to hold a position in a Government that would question France’s support for Ukraine in its current form,” he added.

Climate advocates breathe a sigh of relief

The defeat of the National Rally was also welcomed by supporters of the European Green Deal. Jordan Bardella, leader of the National Rally, who was seeking the post of French Prime Minister, had previously called on the French Government to “resign” from the Green Deal and had attacked what he described as “punitive” environmental policies of the EU.

The left alliance, for its part, has demanded a climate plan that pursues carbon neutrality by 2050 and wants France to become a powerhouse in renewable energy, such as offshore wind and hydroelectricity.

“These French elections are a wake-up call for European leaders. The time has come to take measures to tackle deindustrialisation, lack of investment and household energy bills, which have risen as a result of the costly dependence on gas, oil and coal imported,” said Neil Makaroff, director of the European think tank Strategic Perspectives.

The National Rally and its European allies had promised to close the gaps in the European Green Deal before the European elections. The position was also adopted by many center-right forces in Europe, prompting widespread criticism that mainstream conservatives were allowing far-right forces to enter the mainstream.

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But again, experts warn that Macron’s weakened hand could have negative implications for the fight against climate change. “The results are good news for France’s commitment to climate action at home, as long as parliament can develop a stronger coalition culture,” said Lola Vallejo, special advisor on climate at IDDRI.

“Macron can continue to weigh in personally on international climate and financial issues, as he has often done, but his position is more uncertain after this political sequence that closely followed the world political sequence.”