These are some of the main conclusions of the French early legislative elections.
For the second time in less than a month, French President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist coalition suffered a severe setback on Sunday at the hands of the far-right National Group (AN), which took first place in the first round of the country’s early legislative elections.
Macron dissolved the National Assembly and called early elections on June 9 after AN swept the European elections, obtaining more than twice as many votes as Macron’s centrist coalition.
Macron’s decision to call the elections was described by commentators as either a stratagem that could give him an absolute majority that he lost two years ago or like a dangerous gamble that could see the far right run a government for the first time in the country.
What is it about? ‘Euronews’ offers you the main results of the first round:
Historical advance of the extreme right
The National Group, led by Jordan Bardella28 years old, seems to have established himself as first political force in the country by obtaining more than 33% of the votes nationwide.
If the result is confirmed next Sunday in the second round, the party could obtain between 230 and 280 seats, just nine short of an absolute majority.
Bardella promised on sunday that he would be “the prime minister of all French people… respectful of the opposition, open to dialogue and concerned at all times about the unity of the people”, while attacking the alliance of Macron and the leftist New Popular Front. The second round, he added, will be “one of the most decisive in the history of the Fifth Republic“.
He advance of the extreme right in the first round he assumed a historic result for the party in legislative elections. In 2017, the then-called National Front obtained 13% of the votes in the first round and in 2022, 18%.
Tara Varma, visiting researcher at the Brookings Institution in Washington DC, told ‘Euronews’ that “what we see is that People are no longer ashamed to vote for the National Group“.
“Not only are they no longer ashamed to do it, but they are no longer ashamed to say it,” he said. Although a scenario in which AN wins an absolute majority in Parliament may not be the “most likely”, cannot be “excluded”said.
Macron’s great defeat
Three weeks after suffering a crushing defeat in the European electionsMacron’s centrist coalition, Ensemble, received another devastating blow by placing third with only 21% of the votes nationally. That is, 12 points and seven points below, respectively, the far-right AN coalition and the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) coalition.
Around 300 of its candidates are still in the running for a seat in the 577-seat chamber. But if his result in the first round is confirmed next Sunday, The centrist coalition could lose up to 180 seats and retain only between 70 and 100 deputies.
As long as no other alliance obtains an absolute majority, Macron could in theory try to form a government coalitionbut that could be very complicated.
The presidential side has repeatedly rejected any idea of working with the far-left party. La France Insoumise (LFI)and Macron himself has stated that if AN or LFI came to power, could lead to a “civil war.”
Parties Macron could try to unite for a more “moderate” coalition include the socialists and the greens on the left and the republicans on the right. But it is not clear whether they could find a landing zone or whether they would jointly have the necessary 289 seats.
Could there be a “republican front” against AN?
A few minutes after the exit polls gave a wide lead to the far-right National Group, The political leaders of the left began to call for a supposed “republican front”.
They committed to withdraw the candidates who came in third place and qualify for the second round, in an effort to prevent AN from gaining seats due to the division of the vote between the other parties. This is the case of LFI, the socialists, the greens and the communistsand also from some members of Macron’s centrist coalition.
“I say this with all the strength that each and every one of our voters must muster. Not a single vote should go to the National Group,” said the Prime Minister Gabriel Attal in his speech on Sunday.
ADVERTISINGOther members of the presidential coalition have asked their constituents not to support LFI membersstating that neither AN nor Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s party, which is part of the left-wing coalition, should get a vote.
For Mathias Bernard, specialist in French political history and president of the University of Clermont Auvergne, “withdrawals or, on the contrary, triangular contests are the key to elections“.
“However, it is not certain that this ‘Republican front’ will materialize,” he said, naming Ensemble and the Republicans as the two parties in which third-place candidates could be most resistant to being asked to leave .
High participation in early elections
The elections called by Macron aroused great interestand several voters told ‘Euronews’ before the vote that they were disappointed with the president’s policies and wanted change. Participation, which is usually low in France, increased significantly in these elections.
In the first round of the 2017 and 2022 legislative elections, the participation rate did not reach 50%, according to data from the Ministry of the Interior. In the first round of these elections, participation rose to 66.7%.
ADVERTISING“The high participation and the smaller number of candidates led to an unprecedented number of tripartites in the second round“, according to Célia Belin, head of the Paris office of the European Council on Foreign Relations.
However, the presidential coalition’s refusal to systematically withdraw due to the presence of LFI candidates could “increase confusion among anti-AN voters about how best to act“, said.
Manon Aubry, a left-wing European MP, told the press on Sunday that she met many young voters for the first time when they went to vote in Paris. This movementespecially in disadvantaged neighborhoods, should be welcomed and amplified, he said.
The results also caused protests in the countrywith thousands of left-wing voters gathered by the advances of the extreme right.
