By Frank Bay: The masses are clamoring for the boxing mega event of the year, Canelo Alvarez vs. Terence ‘Bud’ Crawford, in 2025. Well, not so much. Boxing hasn’t had a legitimate major crossover event since the recent Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson circus dud and the Gervonta ‘Tank’ Davis vs. 2023 Ryan Garcia, who is rumored to have reached the million PPV buy point. And let’s be honest, Davis vs. Garcia wasn’t a mega event like the last true crossover event with the mass appeal of Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao.
Canelo is the last of the PPV boxing stars as the model for successful changes to streaming, such as the Paul vs. Tyson event on Netflix. But the last time Alvarez hit the million limit was against Gennadiy Golovkin in his 2nd fight during the HBO days in 2018. Since then, Alvarez’s numbers have decreased, and he is only hitting around 500k at a reported 650k PPV. It’s only approaching 1 million, with Caleb Plant at 800k in 2021, which seems about 20 years ago considering the landscape of boxing now with no more Showtime or HBO.
The fight is well discussed, and the fight that Bud and Turki Al-Shiekh are begging for is Canelo Alvarez. But honestly, it’s not a mega event that hits the 1 million gold standard, seeing as how every Bud PPV has crashed without Errol Spence, with the Israil Madrimov fight doing a measly 150k PPV buys. Turki took a bloodbath at the event, allegedly losing millions even with a stacked undercard and a performance by Eminem. The reality is that the fight is not a cross-over fight and would probably do 750k PPV max. The only other reality is a David Benavidez fight, which would probably make 800k max, since it’s not a big cross-over event, seeing as Benny’s PPVs failed big time, supposedly making 75k for his fight with Demetrius Andrade on November 25, 2023. .
The truth is, Alvarez is in no man’s land, and his options as an opponent Dmitry Bivol or Artur Beterbiev do less than his fight Edgar Berlanga because, on the state side, Berlanga was a bigger name. I can’t offer a full prediction since the future looks dark for Alvarez and his choice of opponents 2025. A Jake Paul fight would be the direction, since it could count for the Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao crossover fight that the boxer he desperately needs it. Alvarez’s current 168lb division has decent fighters but no star appeal in Christian Mbilli, Diego Pacheco, and unknowns in Osleys Iglesias and William Scull. No one would be willing to pay Alvarez north of $35 million to fight on PPV. If we are going to get a Bud vs. Canelo MEGA fight, Turki Al-Shiekh will need to pony up $100 million at least to get the interest of the American market. If anyone can, it’s Turki.
Moving on to the A-list of boxing stars, we have “Monster” Naoya Inoue and Tank Davis. The sad truth is that I don’t see any name opponent except the other to become a true cross-over star. Inoue, boxing’s No. 1 fighter, has reached his limit. Maybe Top Rank imagined another meteoric rise like Pac-Man because Inoue has the Asian market like Manny did, but he can’t jump through weight classes after weight classes, which was never right wait for him. But if Inoue is going to have a breakthrough fight, it’s a Tank Davis, who exists in fantasy land. Inoue has good opponents ahead of him at 126 with Bruce Carrington and Rafael ‘El Divino’ Espinoza. However, none of these fights will send the American media into a frenzy like Manny was with his rivals named Erik Morales and Marco Antonio Barrera. Look for Inoue to play it safe in 2025 and set up a full rising sun clash with Junto Nakatani.
The last and certainly least is Tank Davis, who has done nothing to take his throne as the face of boxing after the major success of his business Ryan Garcia. Beating Frank Martin did nothing for him after he lost steam and took a year off after he was on a heater, with that fight doing less than 200k PPV. With Vasily Lomachenko choosing to sit out and mend his back, Davis was left without a viable name to sell her PPV event. He decided to select Lamont Roach, and now, with several cancellations, people are wondering if the fight will even happen in 2025. Davis must know that he needs a big name in 2025, but there are not many except the man who has already beaten, Ryan Garcia. . The reality is that other names are not stars like Ryan. Shakur Stevenson, Teofimo Lopez, and Devin Haney are all fines. With Manny Pacquiao rumored to be returning, the obvious mega cross-over event would be a Pac-Man vs. Tank Davis fight. A Manny vs. Davis fight would put Davis over Alvarez, but something tells me that Davis and his handlers want to play it safe like they always have. Adventure swimmers, nothing lost.
