Home Fight Canelo Alvarez vs. Edgar Berlanga: Strategic analysis

Canelo Alvarez vs. Edgar Berlanga: Strategic analysis

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Tonight at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Unified Super Middleweight World Champion Canelo Alvarez (61-2-2, 39 KOs) will face very hungry WBA Mandatory contender Edgar Berlanga (22-0, 17 KOs ).

A fight that promises fireworks on the weekend of Mexican independence. Does Berlanga have the bravado, does he have the skills to defeat Canelo? Edgar stated during the week that he intends to knock out Canelo in the 6th round. Canelo made a similar statement saying the fight won’t go past the 8th.

Edgar Berlanga is a fighter who started his career on a hot streak with sixteen 1st round knockouts, but since then he has fizzled scoring only one knockout in his last six fights.

Scoring a 6th-round knockout against Padraig McCrory in February this year. In that match similar to his fight against Alexis Angulo, where he tried to bite Angulo’s ear out of frustration. Edgar Berlanga hit McCrory with an elbow in the third round.

Berlanga was suspended six months and fined $10,000 for that incident against Angulo. This calls into question Berlanga’s temperament, will he be up to par against Canelo Alvarez? He is facing the unified super middleweight champion, arguably one of the best in the sport. He has never faced competition at the elite level before.

Canelo will definitely be challenged, showing a level of skill that Berlanga has never met before. Berlanga’s frustration could lead to questionable behavior — throwing elbows and low blows.

Berlanga stated in press conferences this week that he intends to be smart and lead his attack by boxing and boxing at a distance. In the few games that used this approach, Berlanga did not look impressive.

In his match against Marcelo Coceres, he suffered a 9th round knockdown and Angulo landed several big shots in his match, giving Berlanga a bloody nose. If Berlanga is unable to defend effectively, he will sustain a great deal of punishment. Canelo has one of the highest punch connect percentages in the sport at 46.3 percent.

Amazingly, Canelo has a higher output than Berlanga with an average of 41 to 37.6 punches thrown per round, respectively (Compubox). A defensive approach by Berlanga only decreases his production.

Canelo Alvarez is looking to continue his reign as the super middleweight king. Ahead of him is another hungry fighter looking to make history and take his crown. Canelo has faced this before; if Berlanga chooses to box, Canelo can adjust.

If Berlanga decides to stay in the pocket and trade with Canelo, he will make him pay. So far, Canelo has proven to have a granite chin. Berlanga has good power, but has never been tested at the elite level.

Berlanga claims to have a high boxing IQ, but his temperament will be tested. How will he adjust to Canelo’s deceptive power and speed? In his May fight against Jaime Munguia, Canelo claimed that he could see Munguia’s punches coming, which caused him to miss several times.

Berlanga has struggled against counters in the past, landing several big punches in his matches against Angulo, Coceres, McCrory and Jason Quigley. If he is unable to fend off Canelo’s power punches, it may be a short night for Berlanga.

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