Political instability in France will weigh heavily on European debates, and Paris’s voice risks weakening at a time when the EU is looking to make rapid progress on geopolitical challenges.
The European Union has its eyes on the French National Assembly. Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s coalition government is likely in its final hours. What’s at stake? Budget. Barnier makes a great effort reduce public deficitThis rate, which is estimated to be 6.1 percent this year, is estimated to increase to 5 percent in 2025.
“If we talk about the budget crisis, France is not in a real budget crisis in terms of debt sustainability. The risk is simply that a political crisis will emerge. takes a few years, We will not be able to correct the budget trajectory, which I do not believe will be very sustainable in the long term. Gradually, we will reach a point where the sustainability of the French debt may be jeopardized,” explains Andreas Eisl, senior fellow for European Economic Policy at the Jacques Delors Institute.
Michel Barnier under national and European pressure for France to do so Realignment with the Stability and Growth Pact. That’s why a 60 billion euro effort is proposed, with 40 billion euros in spending cuts and 20 billion euros in additional revenue. However, what worries the markets is not budget uncertainties, but political stalemates.
Months of political speculation
“If Barnier’s government falls, we do not know whether Macron will keep Barnier in office for a while longer or appoint another prime minister. or if (Emmanuel Macron) will resign“Because there are many people in France who want him to resign in 2025,” says Florence Autret, author of the ‘Chutes’ blog.
“This means presidential elections and possibly parliamentary elections in the summer. This means we are facing a process that we will face.” six months of political speculationCampaigns in which France will not participate, etc.,” he adds.
This political instability in France It will gain weight in discussions in Europe. Paris’s voice is in danger of weakening at a time when the Union’s new institutional teams want act quickly to address geopolitical challenges27 is facing industrial and climatic.
