Home Fight Jesse Rodriguez vs. Pedro Guevara: Strategic analysis

Jesse Rodriguez vs. Pedro Guevara: Strategic analysis

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On Saturday, November 9, WBC and Ring Magazine super flyweight champion Jesse ‘Bam’ Rodriguez (20-0, 13 KOs) will defend his title against interim WBC super flyweight champion Pedro Guevara (42-4-1, 22 KOs) Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

(Credit: Matchroom Boxing)

The match is set as the co-feature on the Jarron Ennis vs. Karen Chukhadzhian card. Jesse is ranked number 7 on Ring Magazine’s pound for pound list. At the age of 24, he will only ascend as his resume grows. He has the potential to be an all-time great.

Pedro Guevara has a very challenging match ahead of him, perhaps the most challenging of his career. In his 48th professional at-bat, he faces an opponent in Rodriguez, who has the highest percentage of power connections in the sport at 49.1 percent.

Bam achieved this against elite level competition, besting the likes of Juan Francisco Estrada, Srisaket Sor Rungvisai, Sunny Edwards and Carlos Cuadras. He is also a very defensive boxer with a plus/minus difference of +20.3; his agility and elusive leg movement make him a difficult target to hit (Compubox). Guevara proved difficult against mobile boxers.

He was able to knock out Andrew Moloney in a controversial split decision victory in May. Moloney created difficulties by becoming a moving target, preventing Guevara from landing clean punches. Bam is just going to be a bigger challenge and a much harder target to hit.

Jesse Rodriguez, similar to Vasiliy Lomachenko, knows how to masterfully create angles and control the range, and dissects opponents with precision. Bam will exploit Guevara’s mobility and land with precision, using his underrated speed and quickness. He was able to exploit his elite competition, and Guevara should be no different.

Bam is 11 years younger and seems to have an advantage in almost every category – – speed, power, agility and accuracy. Guevara has decent power, but hasn’t scored a KO win since July 2021 when he beat Samuel Gutierrez Hernandez by TKO in the third round. It is highly unlikely that Guevara will overcome Rodriguez, and a knockout can be extremely challenging.

This is Bam’s fight to lose. He was tested at the beginning of his career by accepting a fight against Carlos Cuadras on a five-day notice, while advancing two weight classes. He picked Cuadras aside, dropping him in the third round for a unanimous decision victory. He became champion at the young age of 22. Guevara also fought Cuadras last November in what was a close fight. Guevara suffered a second round blow that may have cost him the match, losing by split decision.

Bam just has to go out and execute his game plan, and not be reckless or overconfident. He should be able to dictate the match and possibly stop Guevara early.

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