The Iranian government announced Saturday morning that damage from the airstrikes was “limited” and “the situation is normal.”
After Israel launched a wave of attacks Air attack on IranNational media and sources close to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) are trying to downplay the incident, stating that it was a failure.
While Israel reported that at least 20 military sites were attacked in a three-phase operation early on Saturday, semi-official Iranian sources dismissed claims that 140 Israeli warplanes were involved as “exaggerated Israeli propaganda”. They also emphasize this to Iranians: Israeli leaders led the attack from bunkerssupposedly for Fear of possible retaliation from Iran.
Iranian government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani limited her statement on the issue. Damage from airstrikes said to be “limited” and said that “the situation is normal.”
Israel obeyed its most important ally, the United States.
Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu seems to have made exactly the choice Washington wanted. more limited attack streaks Retaliation against conventional military targets.
Nuclear and oil facilities The administration of US President Joe Biden was seen as possible targets of Israel’s response to the October 1 attack on Iran. Israel’s mid-October assurance that it would not attack such targetsThis will mean a more severe climb.
The US said last night’s attacks should put an end to direct exchanges of fire between Israel and Iran and warned against further retaliation.
In reality, Israel’s focus on specific military targets was not ideal for the Islamic Republic, but far from the worst-case scenario. A broader attack on critical infrastructure such as oil, electricity or nuclear facilities could have plunged Iran into an even deeper crisis amid existing economic and political instability.
The American media had previously reported that if Israel’s response was limited, Iran will likely refrain from retaliating. The New York Times also reported that Iranian officials said they would respond if Israeli attacks caused major damage and many casualties; However, if Israel limits its attacks to a few military bases and missile and drone storage facilities, Iran may choose not to take any intervention measures.
How does Iran react to the attacks?
Iran is in an unstable situation because its regional powers, especially Hezbollah in Lebanon, have been greatly weakened. The regime is awareAt least behind the scenes, it does not appear to have the military capacity to rival Israel, which receives billions of euros in US military aid every year.
Despite Iran unlikely to formally waive its right to retaliateAn immediate response does not seem compatible with their strategic interests.
In the short term, Iranian media and state television will likely emphasize a “victory” narrative while downplaying some aspects of Israel’s retaliatory strike, even calling others “wrong.” Iranian regime will likely hide damage to ballistic missile production facilitiesHe turned to drone production facilities to take control of the situation, taking advantage of the limited and perhaps coordinated nature of the Israeli response.
Of course, hiding the truth is nothing new in Iranian politics, with many examples such as the downing of the Ukrainian plane or Israel’s reaction to Iran’s first attack on Israeli territory in April 2024. As for the Israeli attack on Isfahan facilities, just a few days ago and for the first time, a senior Revolutionary Guard commander finally acknowledged that this attack took place.
Will violence increase now, or will the crisis be avoided?
Although Iran is expected to continue its rhetoric of a possible reaction, it is likely that Iran will turn to a possible reaction. The delicate balance between escalation and de-escalation.
It is also important to remember that the US elections, which will take place in less than ten days, will significantly affect the future policies of both Iran and Israel, and it seems unlikely that the White House will allow tensions to escalate in the remaining days. – a possibility that could push Iran to shelve the issue for now – a moderation Iran is likely hinting at. Iran’s guarantee to stabilize Lebanon and GazaThis may encourage Tehran to keep the issue quiet.
But the influence of sanctions profiteers and hardliners in Iran’s ruling circles who see a large-scale conflict as the only way to political survival should not be underestimated.
