United States President Joe Biden is visiting Germany this week after Hurricane Milton forced him to cancel a trip he had planned for last week. What might his visit on the eve of the US elections mean for NATO and the EU?
US President Joe Biden will meet with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer in Berlin, the capital of Germany, this week. when his presidency ends.
His visit, originally scheduled for last week, included a scheduled meeting at the German Ramstein air base with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and major European leaders. Afterwards Cancellation of Biden’s visitZelensky stopped in London, Rome, Berlin and Paris to present his Victory Plan to European leaders.
As Biden prepares to hand over the reins to former President Donald Trump or his own Vice President Kamala Harris, governments across Europe have sprung into action. plan for both scenariosBut whatever the outcome, Europe will need to reduce its dependence on the United States.
Euronews spoke to International Relations expert Rachel Tausendfreund about relations between the US and the EU amid the ongoing debate. Possible entry of Ukraine into NATO.
Tausendfreund emphasizes that Europe must jointly procure more weapons and ammunition and coordinate with each other. “Also, everyone is buying a reasonable amount of materials or producing a reasonable amount of materials,” he says, adding that NATO member states have these capabilities because they work alone. “much smaller than it should be”.
France supports the production of fighter jets and ammunition as a European initiative, but there are other countries, such as Germany, that say the weapons cannot be produced. Should be bought from the cheapest place effective and influential, including Israel, which causes tension between States.
What would Trump’s victory mean for NATO?
“There are two scenarios. The optimistic scenario of the French type is that everyone will eventually We will make an agreement with France Because Europe cannot be dependent on the USA forever and therefore needs to establish strategic autonomy. This also means less dependence on American systems, because sometimes you also need political support to use some of these weapon systems,” explains Tausendfreund.
According to him, this is an optimistic scenario that is unlikely to come true because the countries on the eastern flank of Europe feel bad. Vulnerable due to proximity to RussiaThey are confident in their relationship with the United States and focused on their own defense, which could lead to NATO member states continuing to fragment within Europe.
On the future of Ukraine, Tausendfreund said if Trump wins the election in less than three weeks, it is likely Support for Ukraine will decrease. He believes Trump will push Ukraine into negotiations almost immediately. Using military support as leverage to pressure Kiev To start conversations.
“At the beginning of January, they will have to negotiate no matter what the situation is,” he says, emphasizing that this will likely be important for Trump reach some kind of agreement being able to sell it as a victory.
The best scenario for NATO under a Trump presidency might be: Harsh reaction from the EU Coordination with the United Kingdom, which, according to the expert, will lead to the “Europeanization” of NATO, which will ensure that the alliance remains intact. NATO states will need to achieve this by increasing capacity and filling gaps that may arise if the United States withdraws its support.
“A positive scenario would be for Europeans to have a truly ‘Europeanised’ NATO. They will provide 60 percent of the defense capacity and deterrence,” says Tausendfreund. However, he warns that if NATO and EU states do not increase their defense capabilities, the Alliance could be greatly weakened by 2025.
What consequences would Harris’ victory have for NATO?
“I think we’re facing one or two years of solid supportBut with the aim of finding an exit strategy,” says Tausendfreund. The expert hopes that a presidency under Kamala Harris could encourage the EU to coordinate to strengthen its European pillar.
He said that if Europe continues to be unified when making decisions, the consequences will be negative and Weakening of European security In 2027 or 2028. “The United States does not have the ability to remain as focused on Europe as it has been,” he explains.
Regarding the Ukraine issue, Tausendfreund says, “If Harris wins, you can expect the same rhetorical support that we had in the Biden Administration. Even if Republicans win, I think another big aid package will be possible.” They have control of the Senate because a significant number of Republicans, almost if not a majority, They really support aid to UkraineAs long as the political pressure is not so high.
ADVERTIs it possible for Ukraine to join NATO?
In any case, whoever is elected, the pressure to arm NATO is unlikely to ease. Without better cooperation between Member States, Russia may feel encouraged The expert says it “creates problems on the continent.”
“Ukraine will need very strong security guarantees from NATO partners, whether in the form of membership or bilateral security guarantees. For this to work, these allies must trusted security providers and Europeans have a lot of work to do,” Tausendfreund adds.
What about Zelensky’s peace plan?
“Yes an ambitious plan. It’s clear that he only puts down on paper what he believes they should win. I’m not sure he’ll make it. He won’t get that from Biden. “I don’t think that’s going to happen,” Tausendfreund says. But there may be more support under the Harris Administration.
Security experts warn Europe Take a more joined-up approach On the issue of weapons production, they say they need to accelerate making difficult decisions about the future of NATO.
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