The ability of some governments to implement climate policies could push the world over the limit of the Paris Agreement.
The objective of Paris Agreement to limit the global warming below 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels is no longer possible, according to a new study. Although the deployment of ecological technological solutions has accelerated in recent years, limitations in the application of climate policies in some countries could make this climate goal impossible.
“Limit the maximum temperature below 1.5°C no longer possible even with a moderate probability“said the study’s lead author, Christoph Bertram, an associate research professor at the University of Maryland and visiting researcher at the Potsdam Institute for Human Research. Climate Impact.
In a new study, published in Nature Climate Change, Bertram and his colleagues ran a series of models that took into account constraints such as effectiveness of policies and regulation.
Climate change mitigation
The most ambitious projections of climate change mitigation give the world a 50% chance of limiting the global warming below 1.6ºC with respect to pre-industrial temperatures.
But, if you add these realistic limitations – such as the ability of governments to implement policies such as carbon taxes-, that probability is reduced to between 5% and 45%.
“The world must be prepared for the possibility that the limit of 1.5°C is exceeded at least a tenth of a degree, and probably several, even with the greatest possible ambition,” the study notes.
Politics, not technology, holds us back
Given the recent increase in the deployment of various low carbon technologiesfrom solar and wind to electric vehicles, Bertram says that technological limitations no longer exist for us.
“In North America, Europe and China, Given the recent successes of clean energy deploymentthere is ample scope to substantially accelerate the emissions reductionif the right policies are applied.”
He adds that the main current lack of Governments is to establish orambitious climate goals and implement proportionate policies. This has already been demonstrated by many previous investigations.
Implement effective climate policies
What this study aims to show, instead, is the impact of countries that lack regulatory capacity to implement effective climate policies on the smallest warming peak still possible.
Some countries simply do not have the infrastructure or bureaucratic systems to effectively implement policies such as carbon pricing. This reduces its ability to decarbonize quickly.
The team found that these limitations have a substantial effect on the possibility of whether or not to achieve global climate goals.
“Other regions, especially lower-income ones, often lack the institutional capacity to support faster decarbonization in these regions“International support is necessary to increase institutional capacities and make the deployment of clean technologies cheaper and easier for these countries.”
Even limit warming to 1.6°C It will require enormous political will on the part of higher-income countries. The EU’s first task, for example, should be accelerate your ecological transition. Although Member States are doing well to reduce emissions from the electricity sector, there is a need more ambition in transport, buildings and industry.
Being pioneers in technologies such as heat pumps or Electric vehicles help reduce costs even further and facilitates its implementation in other countries. The EU can also help create institutions that allow decarbonization faster elsewhere, adds Bertram.
