The survey carried out by the Euronews Polling Center reveals that the expected victory of the conservatives has little chance of finding a political consensus to elect the person to preside over the future European Commission.
A few days before elections to the European Parliamentscheduled this coming weekend in the 27 Member States of the European Union, the survey carried out by the Euronews Polling Center reveals that the expected victory of the conservatives has little chance of finding a political consensus to elect the person to chair the future European Commission. In fact, the conservative political wave seems threatened by splits and divisions within the community bloc.
In this report, Euronews journalists analyze in depth the possible coalitions of conservative parties and far-right formations. For this they have the declarations of Francesco Sismondinianalyst at the Euronews Polling Center, and Steven VanHeckerprofessor of European Politics at the Catholic University of Leuven.
What is in game?
The different right-wing parties in the European Parliament are divided for multiple reasons: their perceptions of the national interest, their visions of the EU roledifferent or even mutually exclusive discourses and rhetoric, social values opposites and, last but not least, the internal political interests of each match.
One of the most important fissures on the right is the division between sentiment for and against the EU.
He European People’s Party, a center-right group, is an openly pro-European group, while even the Group of European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) includes some more liberal conservative parties, such as Belgium’s Flemish National Alliance. On the contrary, the majority of the parties that make up both ECR and Identity and Democracy are mostly Eurocritical, if not openly Eurosceptic or Europhobic.
The right-wing parliamentary groups ECR and ID still have to build a united front between their groups. The abandonment of pro-Russian positions and the distancing of the German far-right party AfD bring the Identity and Democracy group closer to the more “institutional” ECR, led by the Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni.
Meloni and Marine Le Pen, founder of ID, have paid lip service to the idea of political unitybut the two strongest and most prominent leaders of the European right have not managed to establish more than a “Cordial relationship“.
The high point of their relationship so far remains a photo at Europa Viva 24, a meeting in Madrid organized by the far-right party Vox.
A centre-right majority?
“This seems to be the message that emerges from the Europa Viva 24 event organized in Madrid by the VOX party of Santiago Abascal. Many perceived a sign of unity on the right,” says the team of the Euronews Polling Center.
“If we think about Giorgia Melonithe Italian Prime Minister, for example, we have to understand that when we look at her leadership on the European right we also have to take into account that we are talking about leaders who in some cases are also heads of governmentso they have idifferent interests“, Explain Francesco Sismondinione of the analysts of the Euronews Polling Center.
Expulsion of the People’s Party for Freedom from the Netherlands
The right-wing team formation session was followed by the announcement of the expulsion of the People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy from the Renew Europe parliamentary group, after entering into a government coalition with the far-right Freedom Partyled by the Islamophobic populist Geert Wilders.
“The moment was notable and a nod to what Renew Europe apparently feels about the hypothetical speculation of joining an EPP + ECR +ID coalition in Brussels,” says the Euronews Polling Center.
When interests mix with political projects
Realpolitik and national interests are inherent to EU political games, especially when it comes to parties that put interests first. national interests from their respective countries to those of the European Union.
According to the simulations prepared by the Euronews Polling Centerif the conservatives were tempted to form a coalition they should (theoretically) integrate the liberals of Renew Europe to match the parliamentary logic of the number of seats with the pragmatism of the realpolitik of the interests of EU governments. Because?
Essentially for two reasons: liberal values would rebalance a potential coalition that would otherwise be too right-wing oriented, and the need to avoid the isolation of Parliament from other EU institutions, especially the Advicewhere there are governments socialists y liberalsas France, Germany y Spain.
“I see two trends on the extreme right that are not compatible. In fact, there is a trend towards normalization. Y Giorgia Meloni He is now the iconic figure who shows that this is possible, that elections can be won, that one can govern and be acceptable to Brussels. And this is, in effect, the path taken by Marine Le Pen. But also the opposite, with a series of extreme right that are in the process of radicalization“, he assures Steven Van Heckeprofessor of EU Political Systems at the Catholic University of Leuven.
While Giorgia Meloni you will have to go deeper into your intergovernmental cooperation con Emmanuel Macron (founder of the Renew Europe group) at least until the French presidential elections of 2027, Marine Le Pen is already campaigning de facto against the French president’s side, as the main antagonist to conquer the Elysium.
Immigration divides the European right
The creation of gaming groups and coalitions is not only about seat accounting, the political orientation of the EU is crucial. The only question that seems to offer certain cohesion to the right It is the political mission to stop the immigration.
ADVERTISINGHowever, there are divergent views and strategies between the southern flank and the eastern and northern parts of the EU.
Conservative forces in central and northern Europe de facto think that migratory flows from Africa y middle EastThey should look to the countries on the southern flank of the EU. This political position is not shared at all by right-wingers in southern Europe.
Even though the EU Parliament will have a conservative majority, even the multi-conservative coalition looks like something of a political chimera, he says Steven Van Hecke: “The center of gravity will undoubtedly shift to the right and this is something that PPEwhich will then be the central actor, will be willing to use, as blackmail, potentially against the liberals and social democrats, if not against the Greens. I don’t think the EPP is serious about working with Identity and Democracy, which will also be political suicide at the national level. But he will definitely use it.”
The resource of temporary alliances
Against all odds, according to Euronews Polling Centerthe main moderate political groups in the EU – that is, the EPP, the Socialists and the liberals of Renew Europe – look like they will once again govern the future parliament together.
Periodically, these three groups will have to establish temporary alliances with different political groups, including from a fragmented radical right bloc, to allow parliament to play its institutional role: a kind of “Lego coalition”.
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