Only seven tsunamis have hit Spain since 365 AD, but experts warn that the biggest of them all will arrive in the next 30 years.
The UNESCO Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) warns with 100% certainty that a tsunami will hit the Mediterranean Sea in the next 30 years.
The danger zone is Averroes faultin the Alboran Sea in southern Spain.
An earthquake in this area could cause six meter waveswhich would reach the Spanish coast in just 21 minutes. In the best case scenario, coastal residents would only have 35 minutes to flee inland.
How deadly would a tsunami in the Mediterranean be?
Since the beginning of the 20th century there have been about 100 tsunamis in the Mediterranean and the surrounding seas, which is equivalent to 10% of the global total of tsunamis in that period.
Tsunamis in the Northeast Atlantic are less commonalthough an earthquake of magnitude 8.5 In 1755 it triggered a tsunami that destroyed most of Lisbon in Portugal, Cadiz in Spainparts of Morocco and reached south-west Cornwall in the United Kingdom and Ireland.
And although a tsunami of one or even six meters might not be on the scale of the 2004 Indian Ocean event, which killed more than 230,000 people and displaced 1.7 million more, or japanese tsunami of 2011which caused approximately $243 billion (€225 billion) in damage, would remain an emergency.
“We do not expect 20 meter waves, like in Japan, Chile or Sumatra, but rather one or two meters“, declared to ‘Euronews Green’ at the beginning of the year Hélène Hébert, national coordinator of the Tsunami Warning Center (CENALT) of France.
“Which is extremely dangerous It’s not just the height of the tsunamis, but rather water flows and flooding, which can cause damage to beaches, ports and streets. “If it’s a small port and the coastline is very low, a tsunami could be more treacherous.”
A tsunami in the Mediterranean would arrive in just 21 minutes
Pascal Roudil, technical coordinator of CENALT, told ‘Euronews Green’ at the beginning of the year: “Tsunamis They can arrive pretty quickly.“. An earthquake off the coast of Málaga would trigger a tsunami that would reach the coast between 21 and 35 minutes.
“In the western Mediterranean,” Roudil added, “if we have an earthquake near Algeria, will cross the sea in one hour and 15 minutes“.
“Also, although our tsunamis are not as large as in the Pacific, 30 meter high waves are not necessary to cause damage and injuries. Even 50 cm can be dangerous for bathers,” he adds.
What plans are there for natural disasters such as tsunamis?
In Spain, the State Plan for Civil Protection against Tsunami Risk has an early warning system to identify underwater earthquakes and a plan for authorities to coordinate responses to keep the population safe.
Other countries like France already have a red alert plan for the first 15 minutes after a tsunami, which was created in 2012.
In 2022, UNESCO carried out a mission to the Aeolian Islands, off the coast of Sicily, to investigate the risk of its underwater volcanoes. According to volcanologist Francesco Italiano, from the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology of Italy, these could cause catastrophic tsunamis.
The first “tsunami-prepared” city in Spain
If a tsunami were to originate at Cape St. Vincent, off the Portuguese coastwould reach the Spanish coast of Cádiz in 40 minuteswhich would leave authorities and residents less than an hour to prepare.
Although the IOC places the probability of a tsunami occurring in Cádiz by only 10% in the next 50 yearsChipiona aspires to be the first Spanish municipality “prepared for a tsunami” and has already carried out evacuation drills.
These are part of the exercises organized by the ICO to prepare seven communities in the northeast Atlantic and the Mediterranean before the arrival of a tsunami.
