A new study rejects the theories that climate change may have some useful aspects for temperature deaths because Europe is heated.
A climate change is Strong increase in deaths Due to excessive temperatures that will exceed any decrease in deaths related to cold -wide colds. A modeling work directed by the researchers from the Environmental and Health Modeling Laboratory (EHM) of London Hygiene and Tropical Medical School (LSHTM) and published in ‘Nature Medicine’ proposals Some basic tips About the subject.
“This study offers convincing evidence that the strong increase in heat -related deaths will exceed much of any descent about colds. Net increase in mortality throughout Europe“The main author of the article and LSHTM EHM Director Professor Antonio Gasparrini says.
“These results discredit the proposed theories about the so -called ‘useful’ effects of climate change, made against vital heat mitigation policies This should be applied as soon as possible.
Experts estimate that climate change may cause directly More than 2.3 million additional deathsIf carbon emissions are not reduced to the atmosphere, it is related to high temperatures in 854 European cities. Thus, researchers claim that 70% of these deaths can be prevented if they move quickly.
Which European cities will record more deaths about high temperatures?
According to estimates, Barcelona will record the highest number of deaths It is related to high temperatures at the end of the century (approximately 246,000). This is followed by the two Italian cities: Rome is about 147,700 with the expected death and Naples, about 147,000.
Fourth on the list Another Spanish cityMadrid (about 129,700 deaths planned) and another Transalpina city Milan (about 110,100 people are planned).
These cities are followed: Athens, about 87,500 expected death, Valencia (about 67,500 deaths)Marseille (about 51,300 deaths), Bucharest (about 47,460 deaths) and Genoa (about 36,340 deaths).
Researchers, due to the large population, the most death of temperature Waited in the most populous Mediterranean cities. However, many small cities in Malta, Spain and Italy are likely to be seriously affected.
The effect is expected to be less serious than the Mediterranean. Other European capitals like Paris, They can make a lower increaseAlthough it is important, deaths related to cold and heat.
Working in North, UK and Scandinavia, Net decrease in deaths related to temperature. For example, the planned figures in London show that 27,455 deaths decreased at the end of this century.
However, the researchers say that this decline has largely faced the registered increases in the rest of Europe, which has turned into approximately 2.3 million additional deaths. Regarding the increase in temperatures On the old continent.
Can European cities adapt to the increase in temperatures?
Europe is heating faster than all other continents From Earth. Existing climate data show that temperatures increase around the world average on the old continent. The expected numbers are incredible, but the increase in deaths This is not the only potential problem As global warming progresses, it may encounter Europe.
“Heat -related deaths are only a measure of health reflections of the increase in temperatures. Excessive heat kills In addition, it causes a variety of serious health problems, “says Dr. Madeleine Thomson, World Belific Foundation Wellcomme.” Risk of more cardiovascular diseaseSpontaneous abortions and weak mental health. ”
Thomson adds that we are not properly prepared for its effects on our health. Different cities and towns They need to adapt quickly To start encountering the increase in temperatures. Adding green gaps or changes such as hydrate can help renew the urban environments where heat is trapped by buildings and large amounts of asphalt or concrete.
However, adaptation alone is not enough. Although the study has made great efforts Cities Fits the temperature changeEspecially in the most vulnerable areas such as the Mediterranean region, Central Europe and the Balkans, it will not be enough to balance the increase in health risks due to heat exposure.
AdvertJust one Important and rapid reduction of carbon emissions It will reduce the number of deaths due to excessive heat for the atmosphere. According to Pierre Masselot, the statistical and environmental epidemiologian of EHM in LSHTM, “Our results underlines the need to aggressive in both the trying to reduce climate change and to adapt to temperature increase.”
The expert adds that if there is no action, it is especially critical in the Mediterranean region to try to keep global warming in the Gulf. They can be terrible.
